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Can anyone tell me why we can't win the NC in 2008?


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when Grothe signed up with USF I thought 2008 would be the year we put it all together.

2007 seems like we arrived a year early.

for 2008

A. the schedule is totally doable, there is no game that we will not be favored (Kansas at home)

12-0 is very possible

B. the team is better

the offense returns 10, scores enough 21+ points per game, better run game, better QB, better O line.

the defense play is solid, holds teams to less than 21 pts, will be better vs the run, better D line.

special teams better athletes, delbert is better,

C. the coaching is better more experience (to handle big games) from CJL on down

that leaves LUCK.

LUCK to survive the game that we do not play our best.

LUCK that a refs call (forward pass?) does not cost us a game.

LUCK that the Football God's do not strike at our hubris.

I am optimistic that we will win our first NC this year,

odds  of going 12-0 70%

odds of winning NC game 51%

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It also takes incredible focus.  We have talent.  We don't have so much talent that we can mail it in a few times and still win.  The Floridas and Georgias of the world can put in their second stringers against average opponents and they are experienced and talented enough to win the game.  If their #1 unit isn't 100% focused, their #2s can get it done.  We're not there yet at every position.  George Selvie destroyed our second unit O-Line. 

We have to be healthy, we don't have depth everywhere.

Our ones can't take days off.

That's a tall order, as we saw last year. 

odds of going 12-0 10%

odds of winning NC game 5%

That puts us ahead of 80% of the teams out there, but we have to make progress this year to get into the top 10. 

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2004 Auburn Tigers! 

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We may be able to play well enough to get there, but don't forget there always the polls that we need to fight to get into the NC game.  There is always a possibility, but first of all we need to be lucky enough to stay healthy at some key positions to get there. 

We may be in the conversation, but unless we win most of our games in incredibly decisive fashion, the computers will love us, but I still see the human voters giving us the respect quite yet to make it into the top 2 BCS rankings this year.

I think going to #2 gave the coaches, players and entire athletic department a pretty good understanding of what it is like to live in the spotlight.  If we stay healthy I think we can deal with the scrutiny and pressure of the ranking.  I just don't see the voters coming around to us unless we are a clear cut choice.

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There is the possibiliy that USF wins the NC but I'm not even thinking about that this year because of our lack of depth and the human element to the polls.  I'm not ready to expect or predict a NC yet.  We still have other priorities that haven't been accomplished yet.

This season will be truly successful if USF wins the BEAST and wins its subsequent BCS bowl.  Honestly though, I'll still be happy even with a BCS loss in a competitive game.  No more Oregons for me thank you

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because we need to get past Kansas and WVU.  Plus a difficult road schedule in the BE. 

Assuming we won all of our games, which is a difficult thing to do, they would still have to vote us high enough to be 1 or 2.  WVU might get that kind of love, but probably not us.  They'd take a 1 loss Ohio State or an SEC team before us...

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A. the schedule is totally doable, there is no game that we will not be favored (Kansas at home)

12-0 is very possible

We won't be favored in Morgantown, well i wouldn't expect us to be.

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There is no luck.

To me there is only the Cincinatti game which even Nostradamus can see its a loss.

UNLESS we stay the week we play Louisville.

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A. the schedule is totally doable, there is no game that we will not be favored (Kansas at home)

12-0 is very possible

We won't be favored in Morgantown, well i wouldn't expect us to be.

WVU will not be that good this year... an 11-0 USF would be favored over an 8-2 or 7-3 WVU team..

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There is no luck.

To me there is only the Cincinatti game which even Nostradamus can see its a loss.

UNLESS we stay the week we play Louisville.

If that's the case, USF should save the money and not go...

There is a reason they play the games... Cincy will be tough... but not as tough as Rutgers last year - and it was the same situation - short week, back to back road games, national TV... And we had a chance to win that game.

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