Doc

28 minutes ago, BULLSHTR said:

Net rankings of opt-outs:

32 St. John's
40 Pitt
46 Oklahoma
69 Washington
75 Memphis

 

These teams that opted out were never getting invites to the NIT (hilarious that they declined an invite that was never coming)

82 Maryland
84 Syracuse
87 St. Bonaventure
88 USC
90 Ole Miss
96 Florida State
98 Indiana
107 UCLA
113 Stanford
128 California
134 Arizona State
165 Oregon State

It looks like the entire PAC opted out below Utah. That explains why they only had one team in, instead of that guaranteed second host. All the way down to #165 Oregon St could have hosted if they wanted to.

I believe Mississippi also would have been a host but instead let it pass to Georgia. 

Not sure if I missed something, but I didn’t see a second automatic home team from the PAC. Utah is in, but I believe Washington was also slated to receive a home game. Presumably they opted out but then did the entire rest of the PAC below them turn down the NIT as well?

16 minutes ago, Dave_Glaser said:

Pitt and St. John’s also opting out

It looks like Virginia Tech and Providence then sliding into their spots. 
 

In the Big East, Seton Hall is also still behind Xavier, but I suppose would get home-court priority as first four out. 

Looks like Mississippi had turned down an NIT bid. I suppose that slides Georgia in as a host (unless a rejected bid removes the automatic hosting designation for the replacement). 

By my quick calculations, the automatic hosts would be:

ACC: Pittsburgh, Wake Forest

B10: Ohio St, Iowa

B12: Cincinnati, Oklahoma

BE: St John’s, Villanova

PAC: Utah, Washington

SEC: Mississippi, LSU

Then deference given to Indiana St and Seton Hall as being among the “First Four Out” leaving two spots.

A Memphis win over FAU should clinch for us at least a share of the regular season conference title. In the event of a tie, I believe all co-champs get a trophy. Tie-breakers only matter for tournament seeding.

Also, the 2-seed and 3-seed are in the same half-bracket, so it would be the same difference to us assuming we earn the 1-seed.

4 hours ago, bcgruber said:

For what its worth we have moved up a seed line 11 is about as good as we can do...and is my favorite seed line to be a cinderella.  

This might be Lunardi’s admission that perhaps USF does have a shot at the NCAAT as an at-large after all. He moved one of the play-in games to the 12-line (previously both were 11vs11 matchups) with USF now moving up from 12 to 11.

Grand Canyon (WAC) and Indiana St (MVC) are listed as automatic qualifiers as 11-seeds, also ahead of the last play-in game teams.
 

Richmond (A10) took over first place ahead of Dayton and thus is listed as an AQ for now (as 12-seed), stealing an at-large spot since they likely wouldn’t be in otherwise. 

4 minutes ago, USFBulls12 said:

Are you the guy with the horns on the hat and USF colors?

Yes

33 minutes ago, 79 Bull said:

Saw Doc in the sparse crowd. Is he still on the board?

GO BULLS!

Still here. Don’t post much, though. Been to plenty of women’s games and the crowd here isn’t too bad, comparatively speaking. 

Just now, Outlaw said:

Sorry you came back to this ****show.

I follow the threads regularly and watch every game. Don’t get much news on the team from where I live so I come here for updates. I’m well aware of the drama surrounding the team.

I just found it particularly infuriating that some guy watching the game on a tiny screen in a sports bar in St Louis understands the rules better than an FBS coaching staff. Just hope someone in the post-game press conference asks CJS if THAT is how they drew up that play.

Haven’t posted here in years, but follow the posts. On the trick play flagged for the illegal forward pass: they have obviously run this in practice. How is it that not one of the coaches was aware that this would be against the rules? Inexcusable incompetence.

3 hours ago, Triple B said:

Assume you'll be sporting the horned hat?

49 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

With the tie and vest?

Of course. Wouldn’t think of showing up any other way. 

Bought my ticket for Game 2 in Chicago. Looks like they are playing it at their on-campus gym where they used to hold the women’s games. I’ve been there a few times before and it really is a high school style gym with bleachers and no seats behind the baskets.

Looks like a 4-way tie at 14-9 right now. If UCF wins tomorrow I believe they clinch the top seed. If USF wins, it depends on the results of the UConn and Houston games. At 15-9, if my tie-breakers are correct:

USF/UConn/UH: USF

USF/UConn: UConn

USF/UH: USF

If USF/UCF gets rained out or has no decision, UH can be the 1-seed with a win. If they lose then UConn can get it with a win. If both lose, then USF. If all three games get washed out, it should be USF. 

These are unofficial, based on past years' tiebreaking procedures. Simplified, for USF to be the top seed, I believe we need a win, plus either a loss by UConn or a win by UH (or both). 

I believe Houston was already essentially  out of the 1-seed after their loss yesterday (would need our game tomorrow to be rained out). A Houston win may actually help us in a three way tie with UCONN as mentioned in the other post. 

1 hour ago, Mama_Bull said:

This may sound crazy, but I think we should root for Houston tonight. I'd much rather have a three way tie with USF, UH and UCONN, because then we would win the tiebreaker by having UCF in 4th place.

If we end up with just USF and UCONN tied, we lose the tie breaker.

I believe this is correct. Though I can't find confirmation online, most of the other sports in the AAC use a modified strength of victory tiebreaker if head to head is tied: record against next best team and down the line. If USF-UCONN-Houston finish tied, I believe the head to head is 3-3 for the tied teams. Our 5-1 record versus UCF would then beat the other schools' 1-2 records against UCF. 

I'm in the very first shot after the opening graphics. At 1:10, in the bottom right corner of the screen you'll see a guy in horns waving a white flag -- that's me!

Here's what I have with the tie-breakers for the seeding in the women's conference tournament:

1-Connecticut

2-Temple

3-USF

4-UCF

5-Tulane

6-SMU

7-Cincinnati

8-Memphis

9-Tulsa

10-Houston

11-ECU

if this is correct, we'll get the winner of the ECU-SMU game in the second round. 

Hmm, if it was a straight-up invite to the Big12, why would some "not like it?"  And with the cryptic message about P5 in due time, perhaps this isn't immediately about us but rather about Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and OKSt going to the PAC, opening up a potential spot for us, but in a less-desirable Big12? Or maybe the B10 and SEC finally coordinated a raid of UVA, UNC, VT, and NCSt, leading to more realignment chaos.

Just guessing, but it certainly got my attention. 

Here's what I've got.  One of these thirteen teams will play in a New Years Bowl.  If Houston or Temple wins the AAC, it will almost certainly be that team since Toledo is ineligible now.  If USF wins the AAC, of course that eliminates Houston and Temple.  I think our case would be strong.

AAC: Houston vs USF/Temple

cUSA: Western Kentucky vs SoMiss/LATech

MAC: Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois

MWC: San Diego St vs Air Force (each team still has a regular season game on Saturday)

SunBelt: ArkSt OR AppSt OR GASouthern (two weeks left, no title game)

We might prefer NIU to beat Ohio.  The most substantial threat to our chances is Toledo (with all other contenders receiving only a smattering of votes at best, which I believe we would overtake by winning out and beating Houston or Navy).  A win by NIU eliminates Toledo from the MAC championship game (NIU plays Tuesday, Toledo plays Friday).  I say, bury Toledo, and hope NIU beats BGSU in the MAC title game.

Another game of interest today would be WKU-FIU.  Root for FIU.  The cUSA East winner will be the winner of the WKU-Marshall game next week, but a loss today by WKU would wipe away their votes and any gain they might achieve by beating Marshall, as well as cheapening Marshall's victory should they win.

Here's another way to look at it. If during this upcoming weekend:

USF wins + Temple loses: we need USF win OR Temple loss the following week.

USF wins + Temple wins: we need USF win AND Temple loss the following week.

USF loses + Temple loses: we need USF win AND Temple loss AND Cincy loss the following week.

USF loses + Temple wins: we are eliminated and Temple clinches the East.

In the West, Memphis' loss to Houston eliminated them. It will come down to the Houston-Navy game, winner-take-all. Their other remaining game won't factor into determining the Western Division champ. It may matter for ranking and bowl access though.

USF beats Temple, Cincy beats Tulsa. All four teams that were alive last week for the Eastern Division remain so. Our clinching scenarios:

1) Win 2 (UC/UCF) + Temple loses 1 (to Mem or UConn)

OR

2) Beat only UC + Temple loses 2

OR

3) Beat only UCF + Temple loses 2 + UC loses to ECU

UConn remains alive, but needs 2 wins, 2 USF losses, a loss by Temple to Mem, & a loss by UC to ECU. However, they can't directly hurt us as their only scenarios requires two USF losses and so we'd be out anyway.

UC can still hurt us. If they win out, we're eliminated. To clinch, they need 2 wins, 2 losses by Temple, and either USF over UCF or UConn over Houston to force a three or four way tie with Temple at 5-3.

For UC to win the EAST: UC over Tulsa, USF, and ECU; plus Temple loses to USF, Memphis, and UConn; plus either USF over UCF or UConn over Houston. UC cannot beat Temple in a 2-way tie (h2h loss). They need a 3-way or 4-way tie with USF and/or UConn at 5-3.

UConn is shortest on tie-breakers. To represent the EAST: UConn beats Houston and Temple; plus Temple loses to USF and Memphis; plus USF loses to UC and UCF; plus UC loses to either Tulsa or ECU. Poor Huskies.