Eric Ruby

Washington meeting with Big 10 - Brett McMurphy 8/31/22

28 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

Could it be more likely that the SEC or ACC pull from the B12? What team really adds value at that point. I feel like the SEC pulling from the B12 would devalue them, and the ACC would be breaking even as well.

Nah. They took the only ones they wanted from the B12 with Tx/Ok. 

1 hour ago, Peatearpan said:

I get it, beggars can’t be choosers. If B10 raids PAC again, and the B12 takes the remainders,m though. We may not get that B12 invite. SEC could take some ACC schools at that point, and that would open up the ACC for us to be asked.

The SEC taking ACC schools before the contract is up would be a big disservice to ESPN who just put a boatload of cash up front to launch the ACCN. The ESPN programming president said yesterday it’ll take 20 years to see return on that investment. ESPN would lose a ton of money if that happened. The SEC are partners with ESPN. SEC isn’t gonna screw over their only TV partner. ESPN wouldn’t pay more to the SEC for FSU and Clemson or others, while also taking a financial hit.

Too add, ESPN still has exclusive rights to FSU/UF, Ga/GT, S car/Clemson, Clemson/FSU, UL/KY and the ACC vs SEC neutral site kickoff games.

Burke Magnus,  the ESPN President of Programming and Content, told the Sports Business Journal talked about the ACC deal, yesterday. He said in 2016 they put down a ton of $$ up front to launch the ACCN. The deal is so long because it takes about 20 years to see any return on it. So basically the ACCN has to succeed and needs the conference in tact, as is to do so. So the SEC is a full partner of ESPN, as well. The GoR put in place was for a reason. Without it, they’d have never launched the ACC network. ESPN and the SEC have a great relationship and are extending their deal through 2034. Basically SEC raiding the ACC would be doing ESPN a massive disservice before 2036. They’d lose a lot $$$. This also means ESPN wouldn’t increase the SEC deal with any new ACC teams until their next go around in 2034. It was a great interview. I mean look at the SEC. They don’t need FSU or Clemson to be relevant. He talked a lot about expansion and how it works. He was professional, so he didn’t give any ideas of who goes where or not. He did say he believed the Big12 was very stable and looked to continue that partnership. Said the same about the PAC, but said they’re working on their stability. He also mentioned rivalries being more important than markets. 
https://twitter.com/andrewmarchand/status/1562394305049903104?s=21&t=w_CplnRAUM4ebwcrOfYTpA

Timmy will redshirt this year, so he won’t be able to play against USF. But one thing is for sure in all of this, unless Jeff Scott rewrites the entire playbook, he’s going to have everything he knows available to UCF in game prep for that game. He’s the best scout team UCF could ask for in this game. He’ll give them everything.

Also, hearing some chatter on the Big 12 TV deal. Apparently it’s looking like Fox and ESPN are going to have a bidding war on Tier 1 rights for the Big 12. Fox still has time slots in the afternoon and night. ESPN has their noon games and other slots too. Fox is also interested due to them currently not having any teams in FL. That’s a big missing piece. Sure right now it might only be UCF in FL, so how much does that move the needle alone? Right? So what brings more value? USF was on the Big 12 radar last go around. It could get real interesting. Just sayin’.

Here’s a good listen. Former Fox Tv exec Bob Thompson explains how the GoR is separate from the TV deal. As I said, the ACC GoR is put together by the conference only. The conference uses that GoR to present to the TV networks when negotiating a new TV deal. It show them solidarity and commitment. Not every conference has a GoR. Big 10 and SEC aren’t in fear of anyone being poached. 
Bob Thompson on air with Marc Daniels

45 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

ESPN won't care if FSU is in the ACC or SEC, they own the rights to both.  Just like they didn't care that Syracuse left the Big East and moved to the ACC... in fact they helped.  ESPN could do the same thing to build a stronger SEC to compete with the Big Ten.  Will they? Who knows... but ESPN would not be pissed if the ACC is blown up... they could save $$ on that contract and focus on the SEC where they really invest their money.

And don't think of it as a rescue... think of what the SEC and Big Ten will do as trying to get more inventory with the best available brands to justify asking for billions of dollars from networks and streaming services.. 

You are probably right that no one will leave early without a fight... but they will leave eventually.

Right, no matter what, the ACC won’t exist eventually. This is way different that the Big East thing. ESPN invested a lot into the ACC. They don’t run things how fans would prefer, they run things to what makes financial sense. They created an ACC Network and put a lot into that. Why would ESPN want to pay 2-4 more schools they get cheap and pay them another $60 mil a year? ESPN doesn’t care if they’re frantic now, too bad. They signed the deal. Plus ESPN gets FSU vs FL, Ga v Ga Tech, Clemson v South Carolina now, too. What if FSU and Clemson get poached by Fox and the B1G? B1G would love to tap into FL. USF fans should hope the ACC stays together. If it falls apart, the big 10 and SEC will gobble up the teams they want and the rest will join the Big12. 

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Sigh. 

In the hypothetical I proposed, the ACC would agree to release FSU from the GoR in exchange for getting $35 million per year.  Right now FSU gets $17 million from the ACC for ESPN (it gets more for bowl game appearances and NCAA basketball money).  So, to the ACC, Florida State's rights are worth $17 million per year (it goes up slightly each year through 2036).

It's a question for Boston College and Louisville and Pittsburgh and Syracuse -- would they allow FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc to "buy out" their GoR early? Or make them stay part of the conference until 2036, knowing they will be gone anyway?

I don’t think anyone is letting anyone leave early. That’ll blow up the conference and leave a lot of schools stranded. ESPN would be pissed to. Nobody in college football has any desire to rescue the likes of Clemson and FSU from the ACC. That includes ESPN, the SEC, Big 10 and especially the other ACC schools. 

1 hour ago, Jim Johnson said:

Here is how it COULD work:

Florida State moves to the SEC, and takes it's rights to TV games with them.  They agree to pay the ACC what ESPN was paying the ACC for those games - about $17 million was paid in 2021-2022 - through 2036.  They get $100 million per year from the new SEC.  Any school can offer to buy back their rights, and the ACC isn't technically out any money.  FSU also agrees to pay the exit fee over the same period.

There is no buyout for the ESPN contract itself, especially because the SEC is an ESPN conference.  FSU would only pay to buy back their Grant of Rights and the conference exit fees  The $500 million is what some people estimate the combined payout for GOR and Exit fees would be if it were a lump sum... That is spread over 14 years it's $35 million per year, which would still give FSU a significant "profit."

What is stopping that from happening?  ACC teams agreeing to allow three to five teams to leave under these circumstances... Imagine Wake Forest being told that FSU, Miami, UNC, and Ga Tech are leaving (along with Notre Dame)... with 10 team remaining, Wake would get 14 million per year in addition to whatever they get in the new ESPN contract... which is 180% of what they would make in the same period if those teams stay.

Every ACC team knows that come sometime in the 2030s the ACC will break up, so it it better to remain whole for as long as possible? Or is it better for the teams that will not be invited to the Big Ten or SEC to try to get as much money from departing teams now?

 

No. If the SEC wanted to pay FSU $100 mil a year, that entire $100 mil goes to to ACC. Not the $35 mil. It’s not what ESPN is paying them now, it ALL rights. Meaning it’ll never be money minus what the other conference offers. So if the the Big 10 says we’ll pay FSU $100 mil, the ACC gets $35 mil. It’s a ACC gets 100% of that $100 mil.

24 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

The ACC only owns the TV media rights only for those home games covered by the current ESPN agreement.  The Grant of Rights does not apply to any new agreement, if any, that the conference reaches with ESPN.  The conference has discussed renegotiating the ESPN contract to provide a tiered payment... and some (like @Cubanbull) have suggested the ACC could add teams, which could trigger a renegotiation of the TV contract.

No one is challenging it because no one has a guaranteed landing spot, not because of the terms of the contract.  Why would UNC challenge the GoR unless they are guaranteed an invited from the Big Ten?  It's a chicken-egg situation.

The ACC may not break apart now, but the Big Ten is looking at a 6-year contract, and I would suspect some ACC teams will challenge the GoR in 2030, when the potential $$ penalty will be significantly lower.

It does not matter. No ACC team makes any $$ for those way games in a new conference. They’re not gonna make 50% of the $100 mil playing away games. Plus the ESPN $500 mil buyout + $120 mil exit fee. No team will do that. They’ll be negative.

Brett Yormark is intense. He’s also in good standing with the B1G commish, Warren. Things are gonna get interesting imo. I am standing by the fact that when USF’s next step up happens, it’ll be Big12. That TV market is advised by networks. UCF got invited because of future projections of TV value due to large alumni. USF has 50k students. Both are in huge markets and combined are #4 nationally. It’s well known. USF’s future is not the ACC, it’s the Big12. Your AD is waiting on a Big12 deal, before ACC. We’ll see what happens, but it’s not SDSU, it’s eastern, I think.

7 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

The ACC only owns the TV media rights only for those home games covered by the current ESPN agreement.  The Grant of Rights does not apply to any new agreement, if any, that the conference reaches with ESPN.  The conference has discussed renegotiating the ESPN contract to provide a tiered payment... and some (like @Cubanbull) have suggested the ACC could add teams, which could trigger a renegotiation of the TV contract.

No one is challenging it because no one has a guaranteed landing spot, not because of the terms of the contract.  Why would UNC challenge the GoR unless they are guaranteed an invited from the Big Ten?  It's a chicken-egg situation.

The ACC may not break apart now, but the Big Ten is looking at a 6-year contract, and I would suspect some ACC teams will challenge the GoR in 2030, when the potential $$ penalty will be significantly lower.

No school is gonna make any money on away games or take any deal where they hope for away game money. No network will make that happen. It’s senseless.  It’s silliness to think so. Again, no P5 school would do that for season ticket sales with a better schedule, either. It’s not even the same ballpark.

44 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

In five years the PAC won’t exist. 

Yup

2 hours ago, puc86 said:

It says word for word that it only covers the rights that would be covered in that contract, there isn’t anything to interpret if the named contract changes there is nothing granted. In an otherwise pretty undefined contract that is clear and repeated.

It’s a grant of rights, not a TV contract. It grants the media rights for every school thru 2036 to the ACC, no matter where they go. The whole point of it was to make it virtually impossible to get out of. I never say never, but it’s been looked at and nobody is challenging it. It’s this:

1. ACC Grant if Rights - ACC owns TV media rights to all schools thru 2036

2. ESPN TV contract buyout. $35 mil per every year left on the contract thru 2036z

3. Exit fee of $120 million 

1 hour ago, Cubanbull said:

You want to keep playing to show competitiveness and the tv value of the game. With that said wouldn’t be surprised if they decide not to play us for awhile 

I don’t think UCF would decline that game. It’d be nice to have a game within driving distance. It’s also way better than FCS or CUSA opponents and will sell tickets, too. I think USF’s OOC is booked until 2028. Another issue is that the Big 12  will be playing 9 conference games leaving UCF with only 3 non-conference.

1 hour ago, puc86 said:

A few problems with your interpretation: 1) without the second contract the schools are receiving exactly nothing which would make it a not valid contract, the only consideration on that side is the ESPN contract 2) it specifically calls out that the only things that it covers are the things of that specific named and dated contract and anything outside of it is not included , if the contract doesn’t exist anymore there is nothing covered by it anymore 3) If anyone new is added the teams have not made any reciprocal agreements with them so they would either unfairly not be bound or you would need everyone to agree again to bind themselves to them 4) the last time the espn agreement was amended the GOR was amended which certainly speaks to that most people in the contract believe a new espn contract requires a new GOR.

Not an interpretation, the GoR only applies to each school’s TV rights being owned by the ACC until 2036. That’s it. Has nothing to do with ESPN. ESPN cannot touch the ACC’s Grant of Rights or has any part of the GoR. The TV contract is totally 100% separate and has its own buyout clause. On top of those two penalties, there’s also a $120 million exit fee that has nothing to do with the TV contract.

21 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

They are ABSOLUTELY connected: https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

"Each of the Member Institutions hereby (a) irrevocably and exclusively grants to the Conference during the Term (as defined below) all rights (the "Rights") necessary for the Conference to perform the contractual obligations of the Conference expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement . . . "

If you read the rest of the document, it continues to state the Grant of Rights pertains only to those elements that are part of the ACC's contract with ESPN.

For example -- the ACC doesn't sponsor Beach Volleyball, but Florida State offers it as a sport.  The Grant of Rights does not apply to FSU's Beach Volleyball games.  The same is true for Boston College hockey.  The Pitt gymnastics team.  Now, I know these sports are not the money sports -- but the rights to televise these sports are not granted to the ACC as part of the Grant of Rights, because the GoR only applies to the ESPN Agreement.

 

The GoR coincides with the time frame of the ESPN contract. The Grant of Rights itself has no buyout. It just states that the ACC owns the media rights for whatever sports ESPN is currently covering for each school until 2036. For instance, if FSU went to the Big10 under a FOX deal, any $$ that would go to FSU would go to the ACC to be split between the remaining members. The ESPN TV contract does have a buyout. Two separate contracts. Two separate penalties. This is a great breakdown of the GoR from ESPN’s Andrea Adelson. Open the tweet and read her thread.

https://twitter.com/aadelsonespn/status/1545437213214838785?s=21&t=LgQeEcIowN5GPBnj1cuWRA

I actually think the Big 12 will be USF’s landing spot, even if the Big12 lands some PAC12 schools. The alumni base combined and market combo of Orlando/Tampa is something the Big12 seriously researched. The attention has been on the PAC12 vs Big12. But there’s TV value with USF/UCF that cannot be ignored by TV. UCF is alone on an island and more east coast games are definitely a big plus. It doesn’t hurt having a passionate rivalry game on the docket either. I don’t know when, but USF could possibly be invited next summer and start playing by the 2025 season. Brett Yormark will be working with the networks big time throughout the year and working on a new deal next summer. If USF gets in the Big12, you hope the ACC GoR lasts thru 2036. Buys time to grow in a P5 or P4 or whatever it’ll be, with FSU and Miami basically making the same $$. When 2036 comes, it will be a crazy time. Way more crazy than even now.

15 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

First, the Grant of Rights just a contract... and any contract can always be renegotiated.  For example, if Clemson offered $2 billion to get out, the rest of the conference would agree.  At the same time, if Clemson offered $200, the rest of the schools would laugh.  So the issue is finding the right number for the other schools to agree and whether Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc could actually afford that number.  Some have said that it could be $500 million (or more), which is obviously not affordable.

 

Second, the Grant of Rights applies to games in the "ESPN Agreement" if the ACC signs a new agreement, it could be claimed (in court) the GoR no longer applies because it was under the "old" agreement.  Adding schools would trigger a possible negotiation for a new agreement.

--------

Both of these are quite unlikely to happen... but that doesn't mean they can't happen.

The ACC GoR is the same length as the ACC ESPN contract, but the GoR and the ESPN TV contract are two separate contracts. They’re not one in the same or connected. The GoR is an ACC agreement alone. So any new teams would just have to sign on to that very same GoR until 2036, no matter what could be renegotiated with ESPN. The ACC wouldn’t risk any chance to causing anything that could allow schools out and send them all off, anyhow. They’ll hold tight. Texas and Oklahoma signed a 14 year Big 12 GoR just like this one. That Big 12 GoR ends in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma with all that Texas $$ are waiting that full 14 years to join the SEC in 2025. 

1 hour ago, Bull Daly said:

The AAC is life boats from the sunken ship know as Big East football. The Big 12 is a sinking ship that will soon need lifeboats aka Big East 2.0

Big12 will be the lifeboat for the PAC12. Next summer will be very interesting. That’s when the Big12 media rights negotiations begin. 

6 hours ago, FanFromAfar said:

 

My understanding is the ACC would only get the rights from the home games of those schools. Which means they'd still be ahead given how much the P2 will make. And they could play neutral games to avoid it, and be way ahead. A battle of attrition is hard to win against schools set to make $800 million more in next 14 years if in P2. 

If you're hoping for USF to get added, you DON'T want the GOR to hold. That means Miami and FSU are not leaving anytime soon, which means USF is not added anytime soon. Adding schools, if those two can't get out, likely means P5s- either PAC (4 corners) or Big 12 (6-10, aka at least R8 dissolution plus Cincy, Houston). 

But the GOR won't hold the ACC together imo. And I don't think any additions will appease some in the ACC. It is not for perpetuity, so leftovers come 2036 will be looking to settle to improve their post-GOR position. Which should not be hard given the 2016 era TV deal is bad. They'll be able to get parity or a premium to the next 14 years in ACC, in exchange for letting schools leave. This is USF's best bet. Miami and FSU leave, now you're in play one way or another. 

First, the Big 12 route- If the BIG/FOX moves first, taking more PAC. This would mean a Big 16 or Big 18, which makes it tough for ESPN to both move FSU and Miami while making ACC third conference. So if a Big 16 happens, look for momentum for the Big 12 to add USF or Memphis to pick up, to get ahead of the ACC and show commitment to eastern members. There is a faction that wants USF now regardless, but the PAC targets are in denial about the P5 era being over. If all 4 corners stay with PAC, it will get crazy imo....

Second, the "ACC" route- without adding PAC, it is not unfathomable to see enough Big 12 schools band together, with ESPN as a benefactor, to go to the ACC and get dissolution. 6 of the 8 left by OU/UT need to vote for dissolution I believe, and Cincy and Houston appealing for ACCN considerations. If this was brokered by ESPN in exchange for the non-P2 schools letting FSU, Miami, Clemson, VT to SEC, then I'd expect those 8 Big 12 schools plus UCF and USF added to replace FSU and Miami. That's 20. My guess is two of Kansas St, Iowa St, and TT would be out, along with BYU. Maybe the R8 Big 12 schools band together in that case to get all included. Maybe it stays at 20 until 4 corners are available. Maybe P2 go 24 schools each, and any P5 not named Oregon St and WSU are in the ACC, plus Memphis. 

that's my long winded way to say, USF will end up moving up. If FSU and Miami end up in P2 it is certain imo. But even if that is not for awhile, I'd expect the Big 12/16 will get ahead and add USF imo. 
 

it’s been a good summer for USF. Any notion of a western based P4 is out (western P3 conference never made sense Imo). If BIG takes 4 more, the west won’t be contributing much to whatever forms below P2. Basically, Oregon st, WSU, SDSU are trending down or out, and USF up. 

That’s not how the GoR works. FSU and Clemson would get $0 until 2036 if they left. They’re not going to take $0 just to beef up their schedule. ESPN would hate that too. Its just that TV couldn’t air their home games. Not to mention they’d have to pay like $500 million on top of the loss of rights. It’s not one or the other. All ACC teams are stuck until 2036. As for the PAC 12, they’re toast by 2024. That’s when their GoR is expired and nobody is going to want to sign a new PAC12 GoR and are getting lowballed from ESPN right now, scrambling to find a Tv deal. Big 12 will land new members from the PAC. I think by 2025 there will no longer be a P5. It will be a P4. New CFB Playoff starts in 2026. But nobody knows who will be involved with that or how. The current format and committee expire in 2025. So right now, the CFP format and leadership does not exist in any form as of 2026. For all we know, B1G/SEC can try to run it themselves and take all the money. But I don’t see that happening. I think it’ll be expanded to 12 games include more at large opportunities. P4 will be ACC, SEC, Big12 and B1G until 2036. After 2036, all hell breaks loose.

9 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

Very true. But the ACC can’t stay in their current contract until 2036, while the BigTen and SEC are making twice as much. So they need to reopen the contract and the only way they can do that is by adding schools.

Notre Dame isn’t coming to join them.

So that really leaves Big12 school or AAC school. The best shot for a Big12 school like a WV is after 2024 when their GOR runs out, but they will still have to pay exit fee of two years of tv revenues about 80 million.

This is why is critical for USF to build and win

 

Adding schools does not change the GoR. The new schools would have to sign the GoR that ends in 2036, as well. Adding schools does not mean more revenue, it would mean less. Adding Oregon or Washington wouldn’t even add revenue. They’re looking at barely $25 mil yr in the PAC. They’re stuck and will just have to wait all the way until 2036, no matter how pissed off it makes certain teams that want out. 

https://twitter.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1549220322242707456?s=21&t=6-Rw541IXMkF4maCxbXeaA