FanFromAfar

29 minutes ago, Cubanbull said:

You actually think that the Big12 without Texas and Oklahoma are going to get same or better contract? If you think 5hats true then it’s not worth my time going back and forth on you on that? I’ll just say we will find out who is right very soon.

As for the Big12 adding 4-6 PAC schools well I don’t think that’s going to happen either,but time will tell.

I have a feeling you have emotional attachments to the Big12 that are making you think they are way more attractive than they really are. They have no flagships.

That is not what was contended. 

What was claimed is even after losing 5 schools to P2, it should be similar, if not slightly better, to PAC. Particularly with PAC unwilling to sign long GOR, which can cap the step-change, as the networks normally make their money on the backend (hence big jumps between deals). The Big 12 had a lead over the PAC. Losing OUT eats into that, but somewhat offset by PAC losing USC/UCLA 

Both were in line for a jump. I don't think the methodology behind Navigate's projections is very sophisticated, but they had the escalation of rights (thanks TINA) offsetting the hit. Put it this way, the Big 12 was comfortably 3rd and in line for a big jump with OUT. Now, they should be around the same. That will depend on who is in on the BIG deal. If NBC is out, or NBC and CBS are out of BIG deal, it is good news for other conferences. 

But you missed the main point. Whatever these two conferences get on their own, adding 4-6 PAC to Big 12 will be more. For many reasons, including simply there is less competing supply. 

I am a realignment fan, with contacts at USF and Big 12, as well as other entities. I do have to defend the Big 12 here because there is a lot of ignorance. For example, things like flagships. That carries no weight with the networks. There is a huge difference between brand schools, and brand programs. The BIG as a P2 is not as beholden to the networks, and can afford to spend on such relics of last century conference structure, but leftover realignment will be about the networks. Many reasons for the ignorance, but as you should now see, the movement of 2010, 2011, and 2021 were not really Big 12 issues, as the economics behind them were true for PAC and ACC as well. That's why the ACC leadership wanted the ridiculously long GOR and why the PAC was trying to make a P3 back in 2010. The Big 12 as never anything more than a corporate marriage, and hence more easily succumbed to the economics driving consolidation. 

4 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

The PAC is only at risk because of BigTen and because it has more valuable members than the Big12.

Bottomline if the BigTen doesn’t add anyone for now, you can expect neither one to poach the other. And in next two years we will get to see what each tv contract it’s worth. I predict they are both going to be similar.

The comparison isn't PAC vs Big 12, it is Pac vs Big 16 or Big 18. Whatever each of these conferences can get on their own, a Big 16 or Big 18 will do better.

More T1 games, bigger footprint, better ability to do both late night and conventional slots. Exporting the PAC brands to parts of the nation less apathetic, etc.

The PAC is at risk because of many reasons, many related to why even the failure that was Larry Scott tried to make the PAC less PAC starting as early as 2010. It is why despite those efforts, only CU has gone west. Regrettably for them, I must add. It has effectively set their athletics back to the point they are no longer a leading candidate for P2. 

The Big 12 on the other hand is 5-deep into losing schools to the P2, and yet, will have equal or slightly better contract. Flyover states and Texas, although I'd never live there, care greatly about their college athletics. 

Which is all good news for USF. A PAC based P4 isn't taking USF. Basically, the PAC's easily foreseen demise has removed Oregon St, WSU, and maybe Cal from the conversation, with USF candidate #1 to replace them. Some could argue SDSU, but not if the Big 12 has its way. That would only occur if the 4 corners/PAC leverage it. But why would they? Adding SDSU is not going to make the PAC or Big 16/18 recruit SoCal tangibly better, it will just mean SDSU is one more peer trying to get P2 scraps, and one with a location advantage. And unlike USF, no one else is taking SDSU if not the PAC/Big 16. 

3 hours ago, Bull Daly said:

Exactly. Big Ten won’t be adding more PAC12 schools anytime soon. I don’t see PAC 12 schools leaving the Oregon/Nike money train.  PAC 12 still has that anchor school and Rose Bowl while the Big 12 has no anchor schools left after Texas & OU head to SEC.

Not quite. 

The BIG doesn't need to add more schools, just flirt with the idea. The PAC is on the clock for their Tv deal, and right now not all schools are wiling to commit.

The PAC doesn't really have an anchor school if what you say is true about the BIG not adding more- that is a contradiction. Look at the PAC ratings- their title game was horrible. PAC VS PAC games even when in good spots don't do well. 

Add in the uncertainty, and the need for schools to go east, and it is dead. Now, or next round. 

18 minutes ago, Bull Daly said:

Since when has the big 12 been able to convince any P4 to join their sinking ship? 

Since the PAC lost USC, UCLA, and the Big 10 is intentionally toying with taking more.

The Big 12, for the first time in over 12 years, isn’t the most unstable P5. Schools don’t go to high risk setups. Pac10 is extreme risk.

6 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

That’s not how the GoR works. FSU and Clemson would get $0 until 2036 if they left. They’re not going to take $0 just to beef up their schedule. ESPN would hate that too. Its just that TV couldn’t air their home games. Not to mention they’d have to pay like $500 million on top of the loss of rights. It’s not one or the other. All ACC teams are stuck until 2036. As for the PAC 12, they’re toast by 2024. That’s when their GoR is expired and nobody is going to want to sign a new PAC12 GoR and are getting lowballed from ESPN right now, scrambling to find a Tv deal. Big 12 will land new members from the PAC. I think by 2025 there will no longer be a P5. It will be a P4. New CFB Playoff starts in 2026. But nobody knows who will be involved with that or how. The current format and committee expire in 2025. So right now, the CFP format and leadership does not exist in any form as of 2026. For all we know, B1G/SEC can try to run it themselves and take all the money. But I don’t see that happening. I think it’ll be expanded to 12 games include more at large opportunities. P4 will be ACC, SEC, Big12 and B1G until 2036. After 2036, all hell breaks loose.

Disagree, the home game designation is how most GORs work. And likely the ACC's too.

You're suggesting the ACC has rights to all FSU away games right now? I have not heard that. So when FSU plays at UF, FSU has the rights to that game? Pretty easy to manufacture those ACC schools not being in the SEC, just having an SEC schedule!

Form Pete Thamel of ESPN:

By extending their grant of rights in 2016, ACC schools did what the legal phrase says: They granted the rights to all their home games to the ACC until the league's television contract with ESPN expires in 2036. After granting them, schools are finding complications in the legal quagmire of the exploration of getting them back.

First, any lawyer that tells you a contract is ironclad and there is no risk in court, is foolish. There is no such thing as settled law. 

Second, going around the GOR is not the same as challenging it. Road games for example. There are always battle of attrition, madman tactics, in which the 4-5 P2 hopefuls suddenly have a COVID season and let the conference know they deem it best to sit out all ACC games. They have $800 million to borrow against, but the others? They have no windfall coming. In essence, all the P2 hopefuls need to do is shift the risk of costs- their plan does not need to be 100% certain of success, just risky enough that the risk averse leftovers take a reasonable offer. 

Third, and likely the most important, is the ACC leftovers are just as much wanting to get a settlement out of the GOR. A school like BC on a death march with 2016 era TV rights to the American conference in 2036 is extracting no value from the GOR. Realignment value or monetary value. It would be complete negligence by their leadership. Their leverage to get accommodations due to the GOR goes down every year. The best they can do in court in trying to uphold the GOR is "not lose" in realignment, with a court room victory simply meaning the ACC forced back together, with the leftovers in an even weaker position, because now ESPN has little ability to prepare for the exit of schools come 2036.

Say 4 schools move to SEC. What would happen is ESPN would air the SEC games at the former ACC schools, and the ACC would want that revenue. 

And that revenue would will be settled, or FSU would never play at "home". The utility exchanged by FSU in the settlement likely to be based in whatever costs FSU incurs by playing neutral site games for home games. If that costs the former ACC schools $60-$80 million/year, then the remaining schools likely get that on some type of amortization, plus some exit fees. Likely also getting ESPN to refresh their TV deal to current TV rights market if it is advantageous, and potentially getting ESPN to execute a bait and switch in building the ACC as the 3rd super conference. So the leftovers likely are looking at millions more than their ACC deal, plus a better position to make the eventual 3rd super conference. Or they could live out the GOR for less, and some become unwanted free agents. 

3 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

ACC Grant of Rights

The ACC Grant of Rights will not be broken until it officially ends in 2036. It takes 100% of the ACC members to vote on it. The GoR says so on page 4, section 8. Attorneys can do nothing to break it. It was sighed by all members to stay true until 2036. There are no loopholes. The ACC GoR has zero to do with the TV contract.  Every school signed over to the ACC all TV/media rights to all until 2036. That cannot be bought out with any amount. The buyouts are totally separate. More on that in a bit. It means FSU and Clemson could leave, if they wanted. But the rest of the ACC gets all of their TV revenue and can decide whether or not they’re allowed to be in TV at all until 2036. They make zero $$ until 2036. Too add, if they left, they’d have to pay out their share of the remaining TV contract. If they left in 2026, they’d owe $350 million. Then there is the AAC exit fee of $100 million. Totally separate from the TV buyout. All of that to leave the ACC is real. It can be fought in court, but they have no case. Each president signed the Grant of Rights over to the ACC. Judge would throw it out. Here’s some perspective. The ACC modeled their GoR exactly after the Big 12 GoR signed in 2012. Big 12 GoR expires in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma will not join the SEC until 2025. That is not speculation, that was confirmed a month or so ago. The reason being is that GoR. With all that money Texas has, they could not get out of that GoR even with only 2-3 years left on it. Even then it was too costly and the Big 12 owns their TV rights until then. The ACC is totally stuck. But that bodes well for USF. Buys a lot of time. 

My understanding is the ACC would only get the rights from the home games of those schools. Which means they'd still be ahead given how much the P2 will make. And they could play neutral games to avoid it, and be way ahead. A battle of attrition is hard to win against schools set to make $800 million more in next 14 years if in P2. 

If you're hoping for USF to get added, you DON'T want the GOR to hold. That means Miami and FSU are not leaving anytime soon, which means USF is not added anytime soon. Adding schools, if those two can't get out, likely means P5s- either PAC (4 corners) or Big 12 (6-10, aka at least R8 dissolution plus Cincy, Houston). 

But the GOR won't hold the ACC together imo. And I don't think any additions will appease some in the ACC. It is not for perpetuity, so leftovers come 2036 will be looking to settle to improve their post-GOR position. Which should not be hard given the 2016 era TV deal is bad. They'll be able to get parity or a premium to the next 14 years in ACC, in exchange for letting schools leave. This is USF's best bet. Miami and FSU leave, now you're in play one way or another. 

First, the Big 12 route- If the BIG/FOX moves first, taking more PAC. This would mean a Big 16 or Big 18, which makes it tough for ESPN to both move FSU and Miami while making ACC third conference. So if a Big 16 happens, look for momentum for the Big 12 to add USF or Memphis to pick up, to get ahead of the ACC and show commitment to eastern members. There is a faction that wants USF now regardless, but the PAC targets are in denial about the P5 era being over. If all 4 corners stay with PAC, it will get crazy imo....

Second, the "ACC" route- without adding PAC, it is not unfathomable to see enough Big 12 schools band together, with ESPN as a benefactor, to go to the ACC and get dissolution. 6 of the 8 left by OU/UT need to vote for dissolution I believe, and Cincy and Houston appealing for ACCN considerations. If this was brokered by ESPN in exchange for the non-P2 schools letting FSU, Miami, Clemson, VT to SEC, then I'd expect those 8 Big 12 schools plus UCF and USF added to replace FSU and Miami. That's 20. My guess is two of Kansas St, Iowa St, and TT would be out, along with BYU. Maybe the R8 Big 12 schools band together in that case to get all included. Maybe it stays at 20 until 4 corners are available. Maybe P2 go 24 schools each, and any P5 not named Oregon St and WSU are in the ACC, plus Memphis. 

that's my long winded way to say, USF will end up moving up. If FSU and Miami end up in P2 it is certain imo. But even if that is not for awhile, I'd expect the Big 12/16 will get ahead and add USF imo. 
 

it’s been a good summer for USF. Any notion of a western based P4 is out (western P3 conference never made sense Imo). If BIG takes 4 more, the west won’t be contributing much to whatever forms below P2. Basically, Oregon st, WSU, SDSU are trending down or out, and USF up.