Will WVU go to the SEC??

[Who'sYourData?]

The Big East loyalty clause is not unique, and these are just contracts which can be negotiated out of.  No biggie, just takes money.  If the SEC and WVU decide they want each other, it would happen within days.

[Apis Bull]

I think the whole WVU thing is to force Missouri's hand.

[macphisto]

The Big 12 has a 24 month rule and a buyout.

That being said, like Colorado and Nebraska last year, schools can negotiate a buyout, which I'd expect in any WVU case.

If you recall Colorado and Nebraska both worked out deals to waive the notice rule. Every conference has it. Most are around 24 months. Most have penalties. Etc.

If there's a 24 month rule then how come A&M was able to withdraw on 12 months notice without negotiations?

Everything I have read indicates that the Big East is the only conference with a FIRM withdrawal procedure written into the bylaws.  A lot of this is speculative because full bylaws are not available online, but every article I've read from the past by guys like Brian Bennett seems to indicate that the Big East's exit clause is unique and inflexible. 

Why would the Big East be flexible and let someone exit? 

Seeing as CU, Nebraska, and A&M only are giving a year notice to get out, I highly doubt there is a 24 month rule to leave.  My guess would be a 24 month notice will prevent forfeiture of revenue, but that those teams can leave on less than that, though they lose money.

It's not so easy with the Big East.  I've known people up at Michigan's athletic department for years due to my family ties to the school and the conference wanted to expand to 16 but the word was there was no way around the Big East waiting period.  The full 16 team conference has to vote on any changes and a majority position has to be established.  Like I've said, there are no other conferences where reports indicate there is an ironclad exit policy like the Big East has - and it makes sense.  If you assume the Big East decided to go with something similar to what they had in place when the ACC raid happened then I have a bridge to sell you.  There's no way a team is leaving the conference quickly and no way the conference will negotiate a buyout unless it is MASSIVE, probably above $20M.

So if someone wants to get out early then they need NINE votes to do so.

As for the TV contract, the first offer saw a 25% increase from the current deal.  But that's a first offer and there are more bids to be had. 

http://articles.courant.com/2011-08-03/sports/hc-jacobs-big-east-column-0803-20110803_1_john-marinatto-ncaa-rulebook-ncaa-president-mark-emmert

That was an offer prior to opening up to bidding and even when opened up there is no need to sell a deal exclusively to ESPN.  NBC is really looking to make a splash in the college football marketplace and we're the only game in town that has a contract about to run out.  Fox wants to expand its offerings.  We want to launch our own network, and ESPN loves our basketball. 

But, ultimately, the key is NBC wanting to build a big college football presence for themselves on their network and on Versus.  And that could also include Big East basketball, something ESPN would prefer not to lose.

This season will also play a big part.  What the Big East will hope for is that our matchup with West Virginia on December 1 plays a major factor in not only determining the Big East title, but possibly having BCS title implications, though WVU needs to take out LSU for this to happen.  A strong season with a great finish will drive up conference value.

ESPN's initial offer was like any initial offer - they were trying to get off on the cheap.  Sure, they offered a billion dollars, but they did that to try to get the Big East to sign early.  Marinatto is right to bet on the bidding process raising the price. 

And remember that NBC wasn't on the hunt when the ACC was negotiating.  We're looking at having a three way bidding war for our services between Fox, NBC, and ABC/ESPN.  The beautiful thing is that USF has a real chance to impact this.  One of the web site rankings this week nailed it when they said that we have a chance to go from an unknown to a perennial tentpole.

[Paisa el Toro]

The Big 12 has a 24 month rule and a buyout.

That being said, like Colorado and Nebraska last year, schools can negotiate a buyout, which I'd expect in any WVU case.

If you recall Colorado and Nebraska both worked out deals to waive the notice rule. Every conference has it. Most are around 24 months. Most have penalties. Etc.

If there's a 24 month rule then how come A&M was able to withdraw on 12 months notice without negotiations?

Everything I have read indicates that the Big East is the only conference with a FIRM withdrawal procedure written into the bylaws.  A lot of this is speculative because full bylaws are not available online, but every article I've read from the past by guys like Brian Bennett seems to indicate that the Big East's exit clause is unique and inflexible. 

Why would the Big East be flexible and let someone exit? 

Seeing as CU, Nebraska, and A&M only are giving a year notice to get out, I highly doubt there is a 24 month rule to leave.  My guess would be a 24 month notice will prevent forfeiture of revenue, but that those teams can leave on less than that, though they lose money.

It's not so easy with the Big East.  I've known people up at Michigan's athletic department for years due to my family ties to the school and the conference wanted to expand to 16 but the word was there was no way around the Big East waiting period.  The full 16 team conference has to vote on any changes and a majority position has to be established.  Like I've said, there are no other conferences where reports indicate there is an ironclad exit policy like the Big East has - and it makes sense.  If you assume the Big East decided to go with something similar to what they had in place when the ACC raid happened then I have a bridge to sell you.  There's no way a team is leaving the conference quickly and no way the conference will negotiate a buyout unless it is MASSIVE, probably above $20M.

So if someone wants to get out early then they need NINE votes to do so.

As for the TV contract, the first offer saw a 25% increase from the current deal.  But that's a first offer and there are more bids to be had. 

http://articles.courant.com/2011-08-03/sports/hc-jacobs-big-east-column-0803-20110803_1_john-marinatto-ncaa-rulebook-ncaa-president-mark-emmert

That was an offer prior to opening up to bidding and even when opened up there is no need to sell a deal exclusively to ESPN.  NBC is really looking to make a splash in the college football marketplace and we're the only game in town that has a contract about to run out.  Fox wants to expand its offerings.  We want to launch our own network, and ESPN loves our basketball. 

But, ultimately, the key is NBC wanting to build a big college football presence for themselves on their network and on Versus.  And that could also include Big East basketball, something ESPN would prefer not to lose.

This season will also play a big part.  What the Big East will hope for is that our matchup with West Virginia on December 1 plays a major factor in not only determining the Big East title, but possibly having BCS title implications, though WVU needs to take out LSU for this to happen.  A strong season with a great finish will drive up conference value.

ESPN's initial offer was like any initial offer - they were trying to get off on the cheap.  Sure, they offered a billion dollars, but they did that to try to get the Big East to sign early.  Marinatto is right to bet on the bidding process raising the price. 

And remember that NBC wasn't on the hunt when the ACC was negotiating.  We're looking at having a three way bidding war for our services between Fox, NBC, and ABC/ESPN.  The beautiful thing is that USF has a real chance to impact this.  One of the web site rankings this week nailed it when they said that we have a chance to go from an unknown to a perennial tentpole.

I hope you're right, Mac. USF controls its destiny.

[charsibb]

I'd love to see NBC run the Big East Network - as long as they agree to broadcast 3 games over-the-air on NBC every Saturday and one on Thursdays, the rest to go on Versus/cable, PLUS to webcast ALL the games each week, including those being broadcast - webcasts to be available for unlimited replay as soon as the game is over.

It would give us a perennial over-the-air presence every Saturday with 2 BE games and 1 ND home game, or 3 BE games when ND plays away. We would reach every household in the  country, not just those with cable, and our teams would all become household names. And we would have to play less weeknight games.

This would be a sweet deal.

If we got it, the SEC/ACC/B1G grass might look a little less green

[Joe]

The Big 12 has a 24 month rule and a buyout.

That being said, like Colorado and Nebraska last year, schools can negotiate a buyout, which I'd expect in any WVU case.

If you recall Colorado and Nebraska both worked out deals to waive the notice rule. Every conference has it. Most are around 24 months. Most have penalties. Etc.

If there's a 24 month rule then how come A&M was able to withdraw on 12 months notice without negotiations?

First things first, there are no Big East bylaws on the net. That being said, the 27 months and 5 million existed when BC, VT and Miami jumped ship. (http://articles.latimes.com/2003/oct/15/sports/sp-newswire15) There would be a larger penalty, etc.

Big 12  Rule

3.3 Effect of Withdrawal From Conference Other Than by Giving Proper Notice.

Therefore, in recognition of the obligations and responsibilities of each Member Institution to all other Member Institutions of the Conference, each Member Institution agrees that after such Breach, the amount of Conference revenue that would otherwise have been distributed or distributable to the Breaching Member during the two (2) years prior to the end of the Current Term or the then-current Additional Term, as the case may be, shall be reduced by an amount that equals the sum of the aggregate of such revenues times the following percentages (such sum being the “Aggregate Reductionâ€); if Notice is received less than two years but on or before eighteen months prior to the Effective Date, 70%; if Notice is received less than eighteen months but on or before twelve months prior to the Effective Date, 80%; if Notice is received less than twelve months but on or before six months prior to the Effective Date, 90%; or if Notice is received less than six months prior to the Effective Date, 100%.

Everything I have read indicates that the Big East is the only conference with a FIRM withdrawal procedure written into the bylaws.  A lot of this is speculative because full bylaws are not available online, but every article I've read from the past by guys like Brian Bennett seems to indicate that the Big East's exit clause is unique and inflexible.  

Why would the Big East be flexible and let someone exit?

They’d be leaving after 27 months regardless, if there is a chance to make money, they’re taking it. Just like they did last time.

Seeing as CU, Nebraska, and A&M only are giving a year notice to get out, I highly doubt there is a 24 month rule to leave.  My guess would be a 24 month notice will prevent forfeiture of revenue, but that those teams can leave on less than that, though they lose money.

You are right, but just like last time the Big East will take cash rather than watch a team walk away for $5 mil.

It's not so easy with the Big East.  I've known people up at Michigan's athletic department for years due to my family ties to the school and the conference wanted to expand to 16 but the word was there was no way around the Big East waiting period.  The full 16 team conference has to vote on any changes and a majority position has to be established.  Like I've said, there are no other conferences where reports indicate there is an ironclad exit policy like the Big East has - and it makes sense.  If you assume the Big East decided to go with something similar to what they had in place when the ACC raid happened then I have a bridge to sell you.  There's no way a team is leaving the conference quickly and no way the conference will negotiate a buyout unless it is MASSIVE, probably above $20M.

They’ll have no choice. The teams will be gone, the conference will need to recover. If the ACC came calling USF tomorrow, you bet your ass that we’d all be looking for ways out of the Big East contract, and we’d find one…Just like Miami and VT (and BC who waited an extra year)

So if someone wants to get out early then they need NINE votes to do so.

Money talks.

As for the TV contract, the first offer saw a 25% increase from the current deal.  But that's a first offer and there are more bids to be had.  

http://articles.courant.com/2011-08-03/sports/hc-jacobs-big-east-column-0803-20110803_1_john-marinatto-ncaa-rulebook-ncaa-president-mark-emmert

That was an offer prior to opening up to bidding and even when opened up there is no need to sell a deal exclusively to ESPN.  NBC is really looking to make a splash in the college football marketplace and we're the only game in town that has a contract about to run out.  Fox wants to expand its offerings.  We want to launch our own network, and ESPN loves our basketball.

Fox just signed a huge deal with the Pac-12. I don’t see them doing much more. Big East football is what it is, good football that occasionally attracts eyes, but cannot hold a candle to the popularity of the other 5 conferences. Thus the reason we’re subjected to so many Wednesday and Friday games. We’re lost in the mix on Saturdays, and have been pushed off the Thursday night slate for the most part. I don’t see NBC paying a lot up front unless we nail down a huge team or two.

But, ultimately, the key is NBC wanting to build a big college football presence for themselves on their network and on Versus.  And that could also include Big East basketball, something ESPN would prefer not to lose.

Basketball is exactly why Versus wants us. But basketball is fetching about 1/4th the money football can fetch. It’s not a money sport until Feb/March.

This season will also play a big part.  What the Big East will hope for is that our matchup with West Virginia on December 1 plays a major factor in not only determining the Big East title, but possibly having BCS title implications, though WVU needs to take out LSU for this to happen.  A strong season with a great finish will drive up conference value.

No, established names. We need a Oklahoma and Texas, a Florida and Alabama, a Ohio State and Michigan, a USC and Oregon, a Florida State and Virginia Tech. Those are what draws eyes, not one successful year.

ESPN's initial offer was like any initial offer - they were trying to get off on the cheap.  Sure, they offered a billion dollars, but they did that to try to get the Big East to sign early.  Marinatto is right to bet on the bidding process raising the price.

The BE presidents were pissed when he didn’t take it. They don’t see it getting that much better.  

And remember that NBC wasn't on the hunt when the ACC was negotiating.  We're looking at having a three way bidding war for our services between Fox, NBC, and ABC/ESPN.  The beautiful thing is that USF has a real chance to impact this.  One of the web site rankings this week nailed it when they said that we have a chance to go from an unknown to a perennial tentpole.

NBC was involved, but the ACC wasn’t interested. They wanted to stay on ESPN.

[cmhatter]

I'd love to see NBC run the Big East Network - as long as they agree to broadcast 3 games over-the-air on NBC every Saturday and one on Thursdays, the rest to go on Versus/cable, PLUS to webcast ALL the games each week, including those being broadcast - webcasts to be available for unlimited replay as soon as the game is over.

It would give us a perennial over-the-air presence every Saturday with 2 BE games and 1 ND home game, or 3 BE games when ND plays away. We would reach every household in the  country, not just those with cable, and our teams would all become household names. And we would have to play less weeknight games.

This would be a sweet deal.

If we got it, the SEC/ACC/B1G grass might look a little less green

0 percent chance NBC would put 3 games on the broadcast channel on a Saturday....

1 is far more reasonable with a 2nd as their Notre dame telecast

[Who'sYourData?]

Ok, mac, let's get back to reality.  Contracts are ALWAYS subject to negotiation.  The bylaws in the Big 12 were tightened and penalties for withdrawal were raised after Nebraska and Colorado bolted last year.  You can see how well that worked this year.

If a team REALLY wants to leave, why would the conference stand in their way.  If you are miserable at your job and want to work somewhere else, would your company force you to stay?

Contracts are always about money.  A&M had to pay more money to leave than Nebraska and Colorado.  Pay enough money and WVU would be allowed out next season.

[macphisto]

Ok, mac, let's get back to reality.  Contracts are ALWAYS subject to negotiation.  The bylaws in the Big 12 were tightened and penalties for withdrawal were raised after Nebraska and Colorado bolted last year.  You can see how well that worked this year.

If a team REALLY wants to leave, why would the conference stand in their way.  If you are miserable at your job and want to work somewhere else, would your company force you to stay?

Contracts are always about money.  A&M had to pay more money to leave than Nebraska and Colorado.  Pay enough money and WVU would be allowed out next season.

I don't disagree, but enough money for Texas A&M was $20 million and that's still not finalized.

Money does talk and the conference would allow someone to walk quickly for enough, but does WVU feel as marginalized as Texas A&M in the Big XII to pay it?  I doubt it.

West Virginia would likely want to exit in the manner designated by the bylaws.  At worst, I see them wanting to play the 2012 season to reduce any kind of massive penalty.

But as we're also seeing with the Big XII, it's not just about the money but also about the legal obligations.  The SEC will want the same legal waivers they are asking for to admit Texas A&M.  Will all remaining 15 teams in the Big East (because the all-sports schools have a say too) waive their right to sue West Virginia and the SEC?  IF not, the SEC won't admit WVU.

I have no doubt there is some mutual interest there, but there are a lot of hurdles.  And there's the cost.  Texas A&M is a more profitable overall sports program than West Virginia, so it's easier for them to pay up big money. 

But to exit and join the SEC, West Virginia would have to placate every school in the conference in order to meet the SEC's terms of legal waivers.  And if the schools feel that West Virginia leaving sabotages their chances at a larger TV contract - even in the ACC range of $13 million per year for the football schools.  Well, that's $5M extra per year, per school for a decade - $350 million.  That's why the lawsuits scare the SEC, because this is big money.  And if just one school withholds legal waivers then they can sue both WVU and the SEC IF the SEC lets the Mountaineers in to try to recover $100M+ from both entities.

The SEC's best play - and probably the one they were hoping for - is to take Mizzou or Baylor from falling apart Big XII.  Or to really maximize their cash and take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas to get to 16, but then A&M will be in the shadows again and they won't like that.

I think there are too many hurdles for West Virginia to be motivated to move right now, especially with the legal waiver issue in the Big XII.  That will make West Virginia or anyone else aware that they could be gummed up too.  The money from the SEC is alluring, but the mess it creates getting there could be a major PR disaster for your university.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/305477-big-east-eyeing-kansas-k-state-and-mizzou#?sct=cf_t2_a7&eref=fromSI&eref=fromSI

And there are little blurbs like that one, so the BE doesn't seem to be sitting on its hands.  They are also aiming high on the TV deal.  I don't expect to get to the $4Billion, but I do think we'll end up with more than ESPN was offering because of the competition in bidding.  Like I said above, a great season this year helps us. 

[macphisto]

I'd love to see NBC run the Big East Network - as long as they agree to broadcast 3 games over-the-air on NBC every Saturday and one on Thursdays, the rest to go on Versus/cable, PLUS to webcast ALL the games each week, including those being broadcast - webcasts to be available for unlimited replay as soon as the game is over.

It would give us a perennial over-the-air presence every Saturday with 2 BE games and 1 ND home game, or 3 BE games when ND plays away. We would reach every household in the  country, not just those with cable, and our teams would all become household names. And we would have to play less weeknight games.

This would be a sweet deal.

If we got it, the SEC/ACC/B1G grass might look a little less green

I doubt they'd want to do three broadcasts on Saturdays, though I could see two on days when ND is not playing.  I could also see them taking an interest in Thursday night games when they don't do special NFL Thursday night games. 

On top of that they would also air basketball in the regular season and the Big East tourney.  Extra programming could go to VS with the rest going to a Big East Network that NBC manages for us and gets on cable systems in a package with NBC owned stations (SyFy, A&E, USA, etc).  NBC would have a great interest in promoting our athletics nationwide to grow ratings and give them value in their contract.