Sagarin Rankings

[namuh-bull]

FSU is ranked #24 in the AP poll so that is identical to reality.

I hate to even think it, but I have a feeling that FSU is making a comeback into being a prominent team.  I hope I'm wrong.

[CousinRicky]

FSU is ranked #24 in the AP poll so that is identical to reality.

I hate to even think it, but I have a feeling that FSU is making a comeback into being a prominent team.  I hope I'm wrong.

Don't get too nervous yet.  Wait to see how this weekend works out for them.  They've beaten no one.  Which gets me thinking about Smazza posting our SOS at 159.  Where the heck would FSU be on that list?

[windbane]

No way you can say FSU is objectively better than anyone in FBS right now having played no FCS teams.  Any computer poll that doesn't factor that in should not be counted.

[smazza]

FSU at 24 is a joke

could usf beat fsu??

[Bullschmutz]

any day of the week and twice on sunday

[IncrediBULL]

FSU at 24 is a joke

could usf beat fsu??

absofrickenlutely.

[Economics_Nerd82]

Here's the link to Sagarin...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Usually after the 3rd week his rankings get closer to reality.  Plus it is used as part of the BCS equation.

Some rankings of interest..

WVU 20

FSU 24

ECU 25

USF  26

Kansas 31

UCONN 35

Cinci 48

Gotta use the ELO rankings. The red column. Those are the rankings used in the BCS

[Bullpride08]

Here's the link to Sagarin...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Usually after the 3rd week his rankings get closer to reality.  Plus it is used as part of the BCS equation.

Some rankings of interest..

WVU 20

FSU 24

ECU 25

USF  26

Kansas 31

UCONN 35

Cinci 48

I agree with others that sagarin doesn't really bracket itself correctly until week six, as they get a better handle on OOC strength, play a conference game or two.  After that most teams strictly are playing conference foes which is easily bracketed.

I did an analysis of the sagarin and power ratings from other polls.  Did you know sinc we joined the Big East USF has never lost at home to an opponent with a sagarin rating higher than 19 (and that was Cinci last year after 8 turnovers).  Also, since joining the BE USF has not lost to a sagarin team higher than 61 on the road.  Taking that into consideration look at our remaining opponents sagarin.

FIU (#161), Syracuse (#126), NCST (#86), Rutgers (#78), Pitt (#69), UL (#56), Cinci (#48), Uconn (#35), and WVU (#20).

Taking this into account a few things seem certain, 1. FIU, Syracuse, and NCST are bad, and neither are going to make much upward movement this year (generally should be 3 wins).  2. Rutgers schedule softens a bit but the weaker SOS will not help sagarin so baring a long winning streak I see them jumping only negligibly. 3.  Pitt is one that could make the most movement with a modest streak, possibly upward.  But having seen them play again this year already i don't think they're a team that can jump high enough to be capable of beating us at home providing we don't turn the ball over a ton like Cinci.  4.  UL is a house of cards.  They've only played 2 games and that ranking is based on past years.  If they lose to KSU, or end up .500 or less when they play us I suspect they'll be in the mid-70.  5.  Cinci definitely falls in the power category below 60, that we've lost to on the road in the past, and ditto for WVU.  Both are difficult to measure as of now, but if WVU goes on a streak, loses to say Auburn and we meet at 9-2 in Morgantown then they're probably still in the low 30's when we meet, the same roughly with Cinci.

So as we speak, I think there are five wins you can take to the house, two which could be interesting but since they're at home we've probably got a 75% chance of winning (Uconn, and Pitt), and then there is Cinci and WVU.  Split one between Cinci and WVU and you're 11-1, sweep and....

[bulls96go]

just win jim!

[USFMikeB]

Not sure if you noticed, but Sagarin is still in Bayesian mode, which means he's still using a weighted average of preseason rankings linked to last year's results.  Until he drops the Bayesian weightings, there's no point in checking Sagarin, as it is no different than a human poll that includes human predjudice.