USF/Auburn Game Breakdown

[JoeB]

AU Run vs USF Run Defense-  Advantage USF:  USF can load up against the run with huge numbers and let their superior cover corners play man on man with the Auburn receivers.  If Brad Lester doesn't play, this helps USF's chances to stop the run even more.

USF Run vs AU Run Defense-  Advantage AU:  Auburn normally plays the run pretty well.  With USF banged up on the Offensive Line, and the loss of Nick Capogna at Center, I believe the AU Defense will  make it hard for Freshman Mike Ford to find running lanes on a consistant basis.

AU Pass vs USF Defense-  Advantage USF:  Really the strength of the Bulls Defense.  If Auburn has to throw the ball, USF should be in good shape.  Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams should be able to shut down the outside areas.  Could see some turnovers, if Brandon Cox is pressured by Selvie and Company and tries to squeeze throws in.

USF Pass vs AU Pass Defense-  Advantage USF:  This will be the key to the game in my opinion.  It is very Even in this category until I recognize Grothe's ability to make a play out of nothing.  If he is able to step up and away from Quintin Groves and the AU Pass Rush, there could be big plays out there.  These 'broken plays' will lead to third down conversions, QB rushing yards, and possibly a blown coverage deep for a score.  If Grothe is contained than this category will be a scratch.

Kicking Game/Special Teams-  Advantage AU:  They made 3 FGs versus Kansas State, we didn't even attempt one.  We dropped a snap on a punt and averaged roughly 35 yards per punt, while Auburn averaged roughly 43 yards.  Oh, and did I mention the fumbled punt return and one totally misplayed punt?  Here's hoping Amarri is nowhere near the punt return team this week.

Intangibles-  Advantage AU:  Home night game for Auburn.  They've only lost one of these since 2000.  Meanwhile the Bulls haven't beaten any major team on the road at night, pretty much ever.  Last year's road night games were all losses (Kansas, Cincinnati, Louisville).  Not to mention we're 0-fer against SEC teams.  Jordan Hare will be a hostile environment.         

Coaching-  Advantage Even:  Both coaches would be considered in the upper echelon of the NCAA.  After struggling in his firsst few season at Auburn the 'hot chair' rumors have all but stopped for Tuberville.  Leavitt has been pursued by superpower Alabama twice, and refused to leave Tampa.

Outcome-  It will be a close game for the entire 60 minutes.  As do most games, this game will come down to field position and turnovers.  USF might lose the field position battle, but Matt Grothe's athletic ability will recoup some of those yards with his feet.  If he's able to hit one of his receivers deep downfield after one of his scrambling plays, it could be a huge boost.  Plus I look for the USF receivers to catch the ball alot better this week.  Meanwhile Brandon Cox will have to deal with a pissed off USF Defense that isn't happy about giving up 13 points to Elon.  Look for a turnover or two compliments of the USF secondary.  Really hard to pick a score, but I'll say.............

                                                                                              USF 17  Auburn 13 

[Minotaur]

God Bless you JoeB. I wish you were in charge.

[crambone]

WOW!  Nice write-up!

[On_the_Chip]

God, I hope you're right!!!

[Educabull]

I'm with you... :-\

[Ruger7mmmag]

Listening to the local radio here in Bama, they're saying Lester IS OUT for this weekend and possibly the SEASON due to violating team rules they're speculating.  Could also be grades related.  Either way, 95% chance he's not suiting up this weekend according to local news reports.

[JoeB]

Listening to the local radio here in Bama, they're saying Lester IS OUT for this weekend and possibly the SEASON due to violating team rules they're speculating.  Could also be grades related.  Either way, 95% chance he's not suiting up this weekend according to local news reports.

Well, he is out indefinitely because of something with his grades/classes.  I don't think its a team violation at all.  For our sake, I hope he's out, but I'm not holding my breath.  Auburn Athletics and Academic Issues have there way of working themselves out before big games.     

[Bull Dozer]

From what ive read on the AU scout board Lester will not play this weekend possibly even the rest of the year.  Its a big scandal where a sociology professor is claiming academic dishonesty on a group project that Lester participated in.  Ill scoot over there and see if i can find the thread with the in detail break down and post it here. 

[NAM37]

http://www.al.com/sports/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/sports/1188638523117310.xml&coll=3

Lester out of opener for Auburn

On the eve of tonight's season opener against Kansas State, Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville announced that he had suspended starting running back Brad Lester indefinitely due to academic concerns.

Lester, a 5-11, 194-pound junior, has rushed for 869 yards and 14 touchdowns in his Tigers career, including 510 yards and nine touchdowns on 104 carries in 2006.

Lester also was suspended for Auburn's Cotton Bowl win over Nebraska in January.

With Lester benched, Ben Tate, Carl Stewart and Mario Fannin will split the carries. Tate's turn on the big stage might have arrived sooner than he expected, but coaches have praised the sophomore for his physical ability and mental grasp of the offense.

[Bull Dozer]

  Shug71 wrote: The information I heard over the weekend (just prior to the game) came from a high level contributor to AU was that this has to do with the completion of a term paper in one of his courses from the last semester of 2006. He along with two other regular students were assigned a paper together and there was some questions raised by the professor. That is all I heard. Other reports are that Brad is a good student. Lets hope it gets cleared as we need his speed at hitting the hole 

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Pretty much the same thing I heard.

2. Lester and the other three, non-athlete students were accused by this professor for plagiarism and lying about the participation of all of the members. All four students received F's for the class from the professor and were reported by the professor.

3. The parents of the other three students have retained legal counsel and have communicated their intent to file a multi-million dollar civil lawsuit vs. the University and the tenured Sociology Professor. Damages to include pain, suffering, irreparable damage to the students education and career, etc. The lawsuit has not been filed as the University is trying to resolve this situation before it goes completely public and goes to an open court.

4. Because this situation involves a legal battle and our ridiculous sociology department once again, the university is placing the clamps down on all information.

. Brad Lester may not play this year as the legal battle will draw on and the NCAA compliance office believes that AU could be forced to forfeit games in which Lester participates if he does in fact get suspended or expelled for the alleged academic infraction that occured in the Fall of 2006.

6 The university has had several opportunities to resolve the situation one way or another and the professor has pushed the envelope at every turn. The professor has admitted no wrongful accusation, will not back off, and is a known critic of Auburn's athletic department (specifically the football program.)

    Shug71 wrote: The information I heard over the weekend (just prior to the game) came from a high level contributor to AU was that this has to do with the completion of a term paper in one of his courses from the last semester of 2006. He along with two other regular students were assigned a paper together and there was some questions raised by the professor. That is all I heard. Other reports are that Brad is a good student. Lets hope it gets cleared as we need his speed at hitting the hole 

Again  none of this is confirmed through the university but this seems to be a very popular belief as to why hes suspended.