Is the Papajohns.com bowl a sure thing?

[TheBullies]

I haven't seen anything on the bowl's website nor the Bull's athletic site. Can anyone confirm and give a source?

Thanks!

[Guest]

No. It is not official.

It won't be until next Sunday.

But, it is about 90% likely that will be USF's destination.

[USFMikeB]

It isn't a certainty, just a very likely possibility.  We won't see any invites until after next week's games.  They are probably talking to our Athletics Dept to get things setup for the announcement, so that everything is aligned when the ink hits the paper.

[bullman3]

Why is papa johns more likely then texas?

[Jamie]

Birmingham is closer than Houston.

[Guest]

Why is papa johns more likely then texas?

I realized there have been a lot of threads on bowl games, so it's possible you missed the explanation -- it wasn't on every thread.

The Big East Bowl Selection Order is as follows:

1 BCS - Champion

2 Gator or Sun Bowl

3 Meineke Car Care Bowl -- which already selected Navy instead of a Big East team

4 Texas Bowl

5/6 Birmingham Bowl

5/6 International Bowl

The Big East Eligible Teams are as follows:

1 Louisville

2 West Virginia

3 Rutgers

4 South Florida

5 Cincinnati

6 Pittsburgh

Now, if Rutgers wins this week against WVU - then Rutgers wins the Big East and goes to the BCS.  If Rutgers loses this week and Louisville wins against UConn, then Louisville wins the Big Eats and goes to the BCS.  (If both lose, unlikely, then the highest BCS rank will win the Big East, probably West Virginia.)

If Rutgers and Louisville win, Louisville would still be eligible for an at-large BCS selection.  But that is a long shot at best.

The Rose Bowl gets to pick first in the BCS, to replace either their Pac 10 or Big 10 team.  The Rose could select Rutgers or Boise State (both of which get an automatic bid, but won't go to Pasadena) or they could select from the other at-large teams.  The top at large teams will be Notre Dame, LSU, Florida (if they lose this week), Louisville, or Auburn.  The Rose won't take Notre Dame, because they would have either USC or UM as the other team - both of whom crushed ND this year.  So, does the Rose Bowl select 1-loss Louisville over a 2-loss SEC team??  That is the million dollar question.

Okay, so there are two scenarios: the Big East gets one or two BCS bids.

Scenario A: One BCS Bid

BCS: Rutgers or Louisville

Gator: West Virginia or Louisville

Texas: Rutgers or West Virginia

PapaJohns.com: South Florida

International: Cincinnati (International has said they want the northern team)

Scenario B: Two BCS Bids

BCS: Rutgers & Louisville

Gator: West Virginia

Texas: Cincinnati or South Florida

Birmingham: Cincinnati or South Florida or Pittsburgh

International: Cincinnati or Pittsburgh (International has said they want a northern team)

The only way USF goes to Texas is if the Rose Bowl selects Louisville as an at large team.