Stuart Mandel says JR Reed is most underated...

[Velcro]

Safety in the draft

By Stewart Mandel, SI.com

Theoretically, NFL execs are evaluating the same players you and I and other college football fans watched for the past four years, but you'd never know it sometimes by the way they mysteriously inflate or deflate some prospects' stock. What exactly are they seeing that makes Florida State's Greg Jones one of the top three or four running backs in this draft despite not finishing among the nation's top 100 rushers last season? What exactly did Rashaun Woods do wrong to be ranked behind at least six receivers whom he outperformed the past two seasons?

Here is my second annual "Overrated and Underrated" list of prospects at each position, based solely on my impressions after watching them throughout their college careers.

Select a Position Quarterback Running back Wide Receiver Offensive line Defensive line Linebacker Cornerback Safety

Quarterback  

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Overrated:  Eli Manning, Ole Miss.

Is he a very good quarterback? Yes. Would he be considered the No. 1 overall pick with any other last name? I highly doubt it. By any measure, Manning, who completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 3,600 yards, 29 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, was no better than the fifth-best quarterback in the country last season (he actually finished 17th in pass efficiency). And that was a big step up from the previous two seasons, when his production wouldn't have merited inclusion in the top 20. You'd expect a "franchise" quarterback to have monster performances in his team's biggest games. Manning had his worst game of the season (16-of-36, 200 yards) in the Rebels' first-place showdown with LSU. He's a solid performer with a strong arm, but he simply doesn't dazzle you like some of his peers at the position in this draft. You could argue that he also didn't have as good a supporting cast -- can you name one Ole Miss receiver? But the Rebels were good enough to go 7-1 in the toughest conference in the country last season and only on a few occasions was it the direct result of Manning taking over the game.

David Maxwell/Getty Images

Underrated:  Philip Rivers, N.C. State

Rivers' college career -- the second-most productive in NCAA history, capped off by a senior season in which he led the nation with a 72.1 completion percentage to go with 4,491 yards, 34 touchdowns and just seven picks -- was the athletic equivalent of graduating with a 4.0 from Harvard. Only the NFL would say, "That's nice, but there's two guys we like better." Is it because of Rivers' unconventional release? Try asking Florida State's defenders from the past four years, many of whom have gone or will go on to the pros, whether that motion hinders him at all. Rivers was one of the most intelligent, mistake-free QBs college football has seen, very reminiscent of a Tom Brady or Joe Montana. Week in and week out he led N.C. State against teams that often had superior talent but were quickly neutralized by Rivers' leadership. Witness his two wins and near-miss last season against the 'Noles, his dramatic comeback against Ohio State that ultimately fell just short, or his four impressive bowl-game performances. Someone is going to get this guy later than they really should and be very happy.  

Running backs  

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Overrated:  Greg Jones, Florida State

It's strange; NFL teams normally are scared off by even the faintest history of injury. In Jones' case, he not only missed half his junior season with an ACL tear but he was clearly affected by it last year when he was limited to 144 carries (about 11 per game) for 618 yards, despite starting every game. His reputation was basically born out of two career highlights: the Miami game his junior year, pre-injury, in which he punished the 'Canes for 189 yards on 31 carries, and a clip from his first game back last season when he literally ran over North Carolina safety Dexter Reid. Jones' appeal to NFL types is obvious -- he's a big (6-foot-1, 245 pounds), sculpted bruiser, the type of back who usually sticks around awhile in the pros. I can't honestly see him as anything more than a short-yardage back, however, whereas there are several runners in this draft with the potential to be the next Priest Holmes or Clinton Portis.

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Underrated:  Quincy Wilson, West Virginia

Wilson really only had one year to shine, but shine he did: 178 yards against Virginia Tech, 208 against Pittsburgh, a memorable last-minute touchdown against Miami in which he broke four tackles on a 33-yard scamper. He was even more impressive than predecessor Avon Cobourne, who only finished as the Big East's all-time leading rusher. Certainly Wilson was tougher -- as tough as any tailback in the country. Like Cobourne (who went undrafted), Wilson is being largely written off by the pros, mostly because of his size (under 5-10). This is a mistake. He might not become a superstar, but he could certainly be an outstanding No. 2 tailback or even a solid starter for a team that doesn't necessarily depend on the run.  

Wide reciever  

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Overrated:  Roy Williams, Texas

Williams was an enigma for four years in Austin, and it appears NFL folks, many of whom consider him the top receiver in the draft, are enthralled by him. A physical and athletic specimen, Williams looks in every way like the next Randy Moss or Terrell Owens, and sometimes he even played like them. But even with the benefit of the nation's most highly recruited teammates, including two very capable receivers -- B.J. Johnson and Sloan Thomas -- to serve as decoys, Williams never dominated over the course of an entire season a la Larry Fitzgerald or Charles Rogers. His best performances always seemed to come in spurts, while at other times he was rendered a non-factor (in part, of course, because of Texas' conservative play-calling). Williams is too talented and experienced not to make an impact at the next level, but there are several more proven prospects, including ...

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Underrated:  Rashaun Woods, Oklahoma St.

Besides Fitzgerald, Woods was the most dangerous receiver in the country the past two seasons. He caught a staggering 107 balls for 1,695 yards and 17 touchdowns as a junior, and followed that up with 77, 1,367 and 15 as a senior when the Cowboys had a more productive running game. He's masterful on the deep fade pass and can outjump cornerbacks in the end zone and break away on crossing routes. Two of his best games came against Oklahoma's highly ranked defenses, including a stunning 12-catch, 226-yard, three-TD performance in Oklahoma State's 2002 upset of the Sooners. In his final game, the Cotton Bowl against Ole Miss, Woods caught 11 balls for 223 yards. He had seven touchdowns in one game against SMU. What more do you want from the guy?  

Offensive line  

Purdue Football

Overrated:  Kelly Butler, Purdue

Admittedly, this is the hardest position to evaluate, since an offensive linemen's work is largely done in anonymity. Fact is, though, the Boilermakers' line was not a strength. They don't have a true power-running game and quarterback Kyle Orton was no stranger to piles of turf last season, when he endured more than 30 sacks. Butler was an above-average performer in the Big Ten but struggled against teams with elite pass-rushers (like Ohio State and Georgia).

AP

Underrated:  Stephen Peterman, LSU

Peterman was one of the unsung heroes of the Tigers' national-championship team, leading LSU in knock-down blocks and anchoring a line that allowed just 22 sacks in 14 games and opened up holes for emerging star tailback Justin Vincent. He was a four-year starter, a smart player who largely avoided penalties. There's no reason why he shouldn't be one of the first five offensive linemen selected, but some projections don't even list him among the top 10 guards.  

Defensive line  

Harry How/Getty Images

Overrated:  Tommie Harris, Oklahoma

The great Tommie Harris myth -- one propagated in part by his appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated's 2002 college football preview issue after just one season -- has been spreading uncontrollably for two years now. One of the highest ranked recruits in the country in 2001, Harris made an immediate impact as a freshman for the Sooners' vaunted defense. The last two seasons, however, he barely made a peep, generating just five sacks and 37 tackles in 2003. But that didn't stop him from winning major national awards. Oklahoma coaches will tell you that Harris was still disruptive and drew double teams. But that's the case with many elite defensive tackles, most of whom still find a way to get to the quarterback occasionally or make big plays. Harris was known to quit early on plays, particularly against the running game. Many Sooners opponents were more concerned about fellow linemen Dan Cody and Dusty Dvorcek than they were Harris.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Underrated:  Chad Lavalais, LSU

Lavalais was the most dominant defensive lineman in college football last season, period. A tackle like Harris, he had 61 tackles -- 16 for a loss -- and seven sacks. He was the best player on the nation's top defense -- one that routinely pressured opposing QBs into nightmarish performances. (See LSU's game against Ole Miss, when, on a crucial late fourth down, Lavalais surged off the line and into guard Doug Buckles, causing Eli Manning to trip and fall.) He's 25, extremely mature and fundamentally sound. The only conceivable reason he's not rated among the top two or three tackles is that he's not the prototypical NFL height (6-2, 304). But strangely, Harris is almost the exact same size and is expected to go in the top 10, largely on potential. Lavalais may not have as much "upside," but it's hard to match his resume.  

Linebacker  

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Overrated:  Jonathan Vilma, Miami

Vilma gets a lot of credit for three reasons: 1) He's a recognizable face from a Miami team that played for two national championships, 2) he played the anchor role in the 'Canes' dominant defense and 3) he's a hard hitter who often made the SportsCenter highlights with his bone-crunching tackles. Fact is, the middle of the field is where Miami was the most vulnerable the past couple seasons (see their past two Virginia Tech games and in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl), and the 'Canes' more versatile linebacker was Vilma's classmate D.J. Williams. What's most puzzling about Vilma's high NFL stock is that he's noticeably undersized (6-2, 220), usually a death knell for such prospects. Chances are he's benefiting from the success of his 'Canes predecessors (Ray Lewis, Dan Morgan) and the assumption, based on Miami's long track record, that he'll follow in their path.

AP

Underrated:  Grant Wiley, West Virginia

A guy like Wiley -- someone who did nothing but get to the ball carrier relentlessly, yet is dismissed because of his 40 time or his bench press -- seems to come along every year. Wiley was second in the nation last season with 167 tackles, despite playing on the outside most of the time. During his career he started 47 games and made nearly 500 tackles, including 47 for loss, and forced nine fumbles. What he doesn't have in natural athleticism he makes up for in instincts. Wiley is simply a guy who makes big plays. There's no reason he shouldn't continue to do so at the next level.  

Cornerback  

AP

Overrated:  Dunta Robinson, South Carolina

Robinson was a late-bloomer who came on during his final two seasons with the Gamecocks. Perhaps the scouts are anticipating that rise will continue. Otherwise, it's hard to explain why they're so high on him when there are so many more proven prospects at his position. Robinson was a decent SEC player, no question, but he was hardly dominant and made very few memorable plays. He's terrific in zone coverage because his speed allows him to get to the ball, but he hasn't proven he can shut down a superior receiver one-on-one.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Underrated:  Keiwan Ratliff, Florida

Ratliff was one of the few corners in the country last season who was a true difference maker, notching nine interceptions and returning them for a combined 182 yards and two touchdowns. Not surprisingly, eight of his picks came during a five-game Gators winning streak that included three wins away from home against ranked opponents. There's no question Ratliff can be a lock-down cover corner and an impact player on special teams as well, yet he's rated behind several less accomplished prospects, many of whom are no taller or faster.  

Safety  

Danny Moloshok/Getty Images

Overrated:  Stuart Schweigert, Purdue

Schweigert gained a big reputation for starting during his true freshman season, but he may have peaked around then as well. His production was no greater as a junior and senior than it was as a freshman and sophomore, and by 2002 and 2003 he was having less impact on the Boilermakers' defense than defensive end Shaun Phillips or any of their three outstanding linebackers. Schweigert is good at getting to a ball-carrier and stopping him in his tracks, perhaps forcing a turnover. But he is not the type of safety who will help in pass coverage and neutralize a receiver. In fact, it's hard to imagine him keeping pace with quicker NFL receivers.

AP

Underrated:  J.R. Reed, South Florida

Reed played in relative anonymity at USF, which is too bad because he was a three-year standout with more than 300 tackles and 18 interceptions. In a remarkable final game last season against bowl-bound Memphis, Reed had a 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, a 45-yard fumble return for a touchdown and three interceptions. He's a terrific athlete with decent speed who can play either cornerback or safety. A Tampa native, he idolizes former Bucs All-Pro John Lynch, and his game is similar to Lynch's. But based on current projections it appears Reed might not even be drafted.  

Stewart Mandel covers college football for SI.com.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/football/nfl/specials/draft/2004/04/21/over_under/index.html

[smazza]

it will be interersting to see where he lands

[bulls96go]

he will get drafted

[smazza]

too bad mandel doesn't draft

[bulls96go]

round 4