Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[UCF_rustbucket]

8 minutes ago, Rocky Style said:

Hmm!

I wouldn't put any stock into this particularly notorious group of expansion "insiders". It's him, the Dude of WV, Tuxedo Yoda, and maybe a few others. They've been tweeting nonsense for years in hopes something sticks.

[BullyPulpit]

19 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

As long as they wait until I am six feet under I am good. But seriously, I think the other issue is playoffs. If you clog up these major programs into two conferences then the playoffs will have to be greater than 12…which I don’t see college presidents doing. 

When amateurism dies there is going to be a lot less concern about the wellbeing of the players. Also, the Pac-12 TV contract is up in 2024. The B1G's current deal for football is up in 2024....just like the Pac-12. If the B1G comes knocking I think those teams are as good as gone. The B1G sees how much the SEC will be distributing to its membership annually under their new deal in 2024 (upwards of $70 million to each member). The B1G distributes about $50 million per member under their current deals with Fox, ESPN, and CBS. They have to find a way to get 40% more than they received in a deal just 4 years ago. Without adding pieces to the deal, I don't see how they can do that.  The pressure is on Fox to enhance their TV presence, especially with the Big 12 likely imploding. The logical thing to do would be to get the B1G to agree to expand to the west and create a national footprint. Fox could then focus 100% of their efforts, and money, into a 20 team B1G that adds their choices from the likes of UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Kansas, and OK State. Fox would have the money to do so as it would be losing the Big 12 and greatly reducing or possibly losing the need to pay for the Pac-12. If I am Fox, I want exclusivity. 

Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah. and Washington State are deadweight, with Colorado not too far behind. Why would the California schools, Oregon, and Washington continue to prop up the rest of the conference if they could earn substantially more money jumping over to the B1G? ESPN and Fox are driving all of this. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by BullyPulpit

[Rex Havoc]

Hopefully we end up in a better place, or add some decent schools to the AAC. I don't think I can handle getting left behind 2 times. 

[BullyPulpit]

14 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

I wouldn't put any stock into this particularly notorious group of expansion "insiders". It's him, the Dude of WV, Tuxedo Yoda, and maybe a few others. They've been tweeting nonsense for years in hopes something sticks.

The "insider-ness" of his knowledge may be in question, but the general premise is not. Losing the Big 12 hurts Fox and strengthens ESPN. Fox has no deals with viable conferences after 2024. They are likely to either get desperate or get out of college football altogether. 

[Friscobull]

12 minutes ago, Rex Havoc said:

Hopefully we end up in a better place, or add some decent schools to the AAC. I don't think I can handle getting left behind 2 times. 

[NewEnglandBull]

8 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

When amateurism dies there is going to be a lot less concern about the wellbeing of the players. Also, the Pac-12 TV contract is up in 2024. The B1G's current deal for football is up in 2024....just like the Pac-12. If the B1G comes knocking I think those teams are as good as gone. The B1G sees how much the SEC will be distributing to its membership annually under their new deal in 2024 (upwards of $70 million to each member). The B1G distributes about $50 million per member under their current deals with Fox, ESPN, and CBS. They have to find a way to get 40% more than they received in a deal just 4 years ago. Without adding pieces to the deal, I don't see how they can do that.  The pressure is on Fox to enhance their TV presence, especially with the Big 12 likely imploding. The logical thing to do would be to get the B1G to agree to expand to the west and create a national footprint. Fox could then focus 100% of their efforts, and money, into a 20 team B1G that adds their choices from the likes of UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Kansas, and OK State. Fox would have the money to do so as it would be losing the Big 12 and greatly reducing or possibly losing the need to pay for the Pac-12. If I am Fox, I want exclusivity. 

Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah. and Washington State are deadweight, with Colorado not too far behind. Why would the California schools, Oregon, and Washington continue to prop up the rest of the conference if they could earn substantially more money jumping over to the B1G? ESPN and Fox are driving all of this. 

It would also seem one of the issues is who is “delivering the mail”? Specifically we only have three networks (four if you decouple ABC and ESPN) showing college football and a lot of teams within the conferences. Thus, I would think at some point the conferences will drop the middle man and create their own network showing each team in the conference playing. ESPN+ is already causing universities to buy the infrastructure needed. Why not just take the whole bag of cash?   

[NewEnglandBull]

11 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

The "insider-ness" of his knowledge may be in question, but the general premise is not. Losing the Big 12 hurts Fox and strengthens ESPN. Fox has no deals with viable conferences after 2024. They are likely to either get desperate or get out of college football altogether. 

Indeed, the dude of WVA seems to have some intelligence in all of this. 

[BDYZR]

55 minutes ago, USFFan said:

How is it a monopoly? Fox still broadcasts B1G, Big 12, Pac-12 and MWC games. NBC still broadcasts Notre Dame games. CBS Sports Network still broadcasts games including AAC games. There's still the prospects of Amazon, Google, YouTube and others getting involved.

I probably should not have answered without omitting the word monopoly. I, of course did use ESPN, which is close to the same thing. I also said that if there's enough money.

There will not be a P5 even if the Big12 name survives. My point is and was, USF is and will be in a "second" tier conference when all is said and done. Controlled by espn. Exactly like the "good ol' days" of the BE.

[BullyPulpit]

1 minute ago, NewEnglandBull said:

It would also seem one of the issues is who is “delivering the mail”? Specifically we only have three networks (four if you decouple ABC and ESPN) showing college football and a lot of teams within the conferences. Thus, I would think at some point the conferences will drop the middle man and create their own network showing each team in the conference playing. ESPN+ is already causing universities to buy the infrastructure needed. Why not just take the whole bag of cash?   

The Pac-12 Network is an exploration in just how terribly that idea has failed in the past. I'm not saying it couldn't work, but nowhere near to the levels that they can get with major national partners. 

Right now, CBS only has rights to the SEC, C-USA, and MAC through 2023, and then the Mountain West until 2025. I don't see how they can continue to be a major player in college football unless they made a real move to get the Big Ten contract. However, their secondary distribution is terrible. CBS Sports Network is a joke as CBS hasn't put enough money into talent, production, marketing, and product to build their presence. It's hard to imagine CBS not allowing their TV deals to just run their course. If they were serious about staying in the game they would have made a major play for at least part of the SEC contract.

Fox's deal with the B1G and Pac-12 runs out in 2024 and the Big 12 deal was set to run in 2025. They have invested too much in FS1 and FS2 to allow ESPN to have a stranglehold on college football broadcast rights. 

NBC only has Notre Dame through 2025. I expect at that point Notre Dame's hand is going to be forced to join up with a major conference. They are falling too far behind in the monetary arms race that is college football. They only make $15 million per year with NBC. Even a 100% increase (totally unlikely) would still have them making far less than the major conferences. If teams are going to find ways to start paying players, Notre Dame will have to join a conference in order to keep up. 

ESPN has the B1G through 2024, the Sun Belt through 2028, the American through 2032, and the SEC through 2034. They are positioned incredibly well versus the other networks. They don't need any additional programming at this point, but if they were able to get all or part of the B1G deal then they would essentially have exclusivity over all college football broadcasting rights. 

[Rocky Style]

22 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Indeed, the dude of WVA seems to have some intelligence in all of this. 

If anything else, how to burn a couch.