Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[NewEnglandBull]

44 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I think this statement is relative. In the short run (next 5 years or so) it is possible that we find ourselves in a slightly better position. However, in the long run, I think the more likely scenario is that the B1G and the SEC expand to 20 or 24 teams each and gobble up the best of the rest (UCLA, Oregon, USC, Stanford, Washington, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, UNC, if they go to 40 and the likes of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Kansas and a few others if they go to 48). That would be the end of any illusion or delusion that we are somehow involved in major college football. Fox would want to own the B1G package and ESPN would own the SEC package. I know ESPN would want to own all of it, but if Fox is serious about continuing to be a player in carrying sports they would have to maintain a Thursday to Saturday presence. 

I am not sure if I am buying that there will be consolidation beyond 4 major conferences. It becomes too out of control relative to equality of dollar disbursement, equality of costs, schedule ramifications, and general interest in the conference itself by fans. I think the leap is too great at this time. Thus, it is my opinion, regardless of what we call it, USF will find itself in the 5th conference. 

[Rocky Style]

1 hour ago, Brad said:

It took me a while to find the other gossip guy that was quoted in this thread for years along with Twiiter's  @TuxedoYoda, it was @MHver3

 

https://twitter.com/MHver3

 

Hmm!

[NewEnglandBull]

 

College football realignment fallout: What's next with Texas, Oklahoma stating intent to leave Big 12 for SEC - CBSSports.com

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Look for the Big Ten to make some moves -- quickly -- and TV networks...

Big 12's sad, tragic potential end
In 2016, Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard made this prescient statement: "The Big 12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we're the Mountain West Conference."

Those words hit like a sledgehammer today. As the SEC shocked the world by preparing to assume the 'Horns and Sooners, the Big 12 lost 50% to 75% of its value, several industry sources tell CBS Sports. Their TV contracts with ESPN and Fox contain language that allows the Big 12 networks to reduce payouts if there is a loss of membership.

"When you're losing two of the most visible programs, the network has the right to come and say, 'We're going to reduce the rights by X.'" one longtime, high-profile administrator said.

That means the Big 12 deal could drop from $37 million in annual revenue to as low as $9 million per school. Considering there aren't two schools available that come close to replacing the value of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is in troubled waters to say the least.

There's a real possibility the conference could be scattered to the four winds. What a shame. Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia and Baylor look particularly vulnerable. Those schools are neither in a major market nor an established national brand.

What's next? The Big 12 seems to be the hunted instead of the hunter. It retains autonomous (Power Five) legislative voting rights within the NCAA ... if it stays together. As mentioned, some Big 12 schools could find a lifeline in the Pac-12 -- just not all of them.

American the beautiful?
The American Athletic Conference has shown an interest in taking in at least some Big 12 schools. It flirted with Boise State last year. Does some combination of Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech make sense? Would the AAC eventually replace the Big 12 as a Power Five conference?

"You have to come with an aggressive idea that the conference not only is going to exist but the conference is going to develop a program that is going to make them stronger than what would be expected with the absence of Texas and Oklahoma," that source said. 

If the Big 12 dissolves, everyone moves up a spot in college football's pecking order. That means the AAC all but becomes an automatic qualifier for the expanded playoff if you assume it is the next-strongest conference after what will then be the four super conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12).

In the suggested 12-team playoff, the top six conference champions get automatic bids. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco has long stumped for his league to receive "Power Six" status. That may now come by attrition.

Figure on the AAC adding at least one school to make it an even 12. The conference has 10 years to run on a 12-year deal with ESPN that is worth a reported $1 billion. Even in its current state, the worth of some Big 12 schools would be a boost to the AAC.

[Rocky Style]

2 hours ago, Brad said:

Although the problem a this moment in time is we are at the bottom.   

The thing about the bottom is it is a great foundation to build off of.  But the problem is we discover new bottoms.

[BullyPulpit]

2 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

I am not sure if I am buying that there will be consolidation beyond 4 major conferences. It becomes too out of control relative to equality of dollar disbursement, equality of costs, schedule ramifications, and general interest in the conference itself by fans. I think the leap is too great at this time. Thus, it is my opinion, regardless of what we call it, USF will find itself in the 5th conference. 

You could be right, everything is conjecture. However, if ESPN/Fox could squeeze all of the valuable assets from the 4 major conferences and consolidate them into 2 super conferences, I think that is absolutely what they would do. The only thing stopping Florida State and Clemson from trying to join the SEC is the Grant of Rights deal that they agreed to in 2016. They are locked into the conference until 2036 and the potential buyout would be exorbitant. Maybe the consolidation into 2 mega conferences has to wait until then, but I do think it is inevitable. 

[bulloni]

2 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

That means the Big 12 deal could drop from $37 million in annual revenue to as low as $9 million per school. Considering there aren't two schools available that come close to replacing the value of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is in troubled waters to say the least.

If this is the case then screw joining the Big 12, the American may have more power than I thought. Invite all 8, worst case we end up with 19 then invite BYU or Boise and have our own 20 team conference

[NewEnglandBull]

Just now, BullyPulpit said:

You could be right, everything is conjecture. However, if ESPN/Fox could squeeze all of the valuable assets from the 4 major conferences and consolidate them into 2 super conferences, I think that is absolutely what they would do. The only thing stopping Florida State and Clemson from trying to join the SEC is the Grant of Rights deal that they agreed to in 2016. They are locked into the conference until 2036 and the potential buyout would be exorbitant. Maybe the consolidation into 2 mega conferences has to wait until then, but I do think it is inevitable. 

As long as they wait until I am six feet under I am good. But seriously, I think the other issue is playoffs. If you clog up these major programs into two conferences then the playoffs will have to be greater than 12…which I don’t see college presidents doing. 

[Bullschmutz]

ESPN has now made The SEC such a nice package, that Amazon is ready to swoop in and grab the rights.

[NewEnglandBull]

Just now, bulloni said:

If this is the case then screw joining the Big 12, the American may have more power than I thought. Invite all 8, worst case we end up with 19 then invite BYU or Boise and have our own 20 team conference

I was thinking the same but I would rather have their name plate for branding purposes. 

[Rocky Style]

2 hours ago, NewEnglandBull said:

The key is not getting the distance between the conferences too great. Thus if we can put something together better than now that could work. All schools have limits on scholarships and a conference can’t get everybody who is good. The bigger concern is a super conference having more money to pay sponsors to play players. 

No joke I had a friend text me and ask if they will need a salary cap in College Football LOL.  Think of the haves and the have nots, then imagine the haves of the haves being the Yankees, and the "sub-haves" getting restless and complainy as cable subscribers die off.