USF Softball

[JTrue]

And because I went down a rabbit hole avoiding work tonight:

For really simple comparison, 2019 WBB Elite 8 was all #1 and #2 seeds. Women's softball was the same thing. The softball WS final eight worst ranked RPI team was 10. Baseball in 2019 had a final 8 in the CWS that looked way different. They reseed after the rounds, so if you're casually looking, the numbers are funky. But if you if you look at RPI before all the regionals started, teams that made it to the WS had some variation. Vandy 1, Michigan 19, FSU 32, Arkansas 9, Texas Tech 8, Auburn 11, Miss State 3, Louisville 5. Thats like seeing an Elite 8 in basketball that has (roughly, I know RPI to seeding isn't perfect) two #1s, two #2s, two #3, a #5, and a #8. That looks like a MBB bracket. Mostly your best teams do what they do, but you have outliers. 

Edited March 11, 2021 by JTrue

[BullyPulpit]

14 hours ago, chapelbull said:

This really isn't true.   

1.  I pointed out above that P5s are only slightly less dominant in baseball than softball.   

2.  Mid-majors lose players too.  USF lost 2 pitchers last year.  They lost a few players a couple of seasons ago and lose recruits every year as well.  Just like many other mid-majors,

3.  The real reason that mid-majors can compete more in baseball is the depth of quality baseball players compared to softball especially in states like Florida, Texas, and California.   Jack Jaziak is good enough to beat any team in the country.   FGCU has a guy like that.   Stetson has a couple.   Most decent mid-majors will have at least one of those guys.   You won't see that in softball as much. 

4.  You also may see a different level of maturity/growth in baseball players.  Guys who weren't heavily recruited early on may bloom a little later thus leading to a mid-major getting a "steal" so to speak.  Not going to happen much in softball.

 

Bottom line .... P5's have a huge advantage overall but baseball can compete much more than Football/Basketball.   Softball can compete, but it's tough to compete with the P5's like UF and FSU when it comes tournament time

Sorry, but 33 P5 players got drafted in the first two rounds of the latest MLB draft compared to 5 from mid-majors. Everyone may lose players, but the P5s are losing elite level talent. The P5s lose more high school recruits to the draft than the mid-majors and the numbers aren't close. Could you imagine the difference in college football if all of the high 4 and 5 star recruits that the big boys went after and got to commit ended up going to the NFL instead? This is absolutely a factor in the competitive balance being closer in baseball than any other major sport, including softball. The dual drafts make a big difference. 

[chapelbull]

21 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Sorry, but 33 P5 players got drafted in the first two rounds of the latest MLB draft compared to 5 from mid-majors. Everyone may lose players, but the P5s are losing elite level talent. The P5s lose more high school recruits to the draft than the mid-majors and the numbers aren't close. Could you imagine the difference in college football if all of the high 4 and 5 star recruits that the big boys went after and got to commit ended up going to the NFL instead? This is absolutely a factor in the competitive balance being closer in baseball than any other major sport, including softball. The dual drafts make a big difference. 

It is 100% a nonfactor.   They have more guys drafted because they have way more elite talent.   UF loses a stud recruit, they have 3 ready to step up and take their place

Edited March 11, 2021 by chapelbull

[BullyPulpit]

6 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

It is 100% a nonfactor.   They have more guys drafted because they have way more talent.

Which means that they lose that talent early, which levels the playing field. They also lose out on many potential recruits. You have the top high schoolers, who in any other sport would be signing with the P5 Big Boys, opting for the majors. That forces P5 schools to have to actually find and evaluate talent rather than it falling straight into their laps. I'm not saying it is the only reason the mid-majors are more competitive, but to say it is a nonfactor is ignorant. 

Edited March 11, 2021 by BullyPulpit

[chapelbull]

1 minute ago, BullyPulpit said:

Which means that they lose that talent early, which levels the playing field. They also lose out on many potential recruits. You have the top high schoolers, who in any other sport would be signing with the P5 Big Boys, opting for the majors. That forces P5 schools to have to actually find and evaluate talent rather than it falling straight into their laps. I'm not saying it is the only reason the mid-majors are more competitive, but to say it is a nonfactor is ignorant. 

It is 100% a nonfactor.

[BullyPulpit]

1 minute ago, chapelbull said:

It is 100% a nonfactor.

It absolutely, but you are entitled to your opinion. 

[chapelbull]

Just now, BullyPulpit said:

It absolutely, but you are entitled to your opinion. 

It absolutely isn't.  Nothing you said makes any sense.  You act like P5 schools don't know that some of their recruits are going to be drafted and are surprised when it happens.   No disrespect, I think you are ignorant to how this all works.    USF lost a good recruit last summer when South Carolina came a knocking.  It took the kid all of about 5 minutes to change his commitment to the P5 school.   Vanderbilt has 2 of the top 3 projected draft picks as current recruits (plus a current player as the third).   You don't think they are prepared for that.   Well they also have one of the top high school players in the area as a recruit too.  He's a SS who is more than ready to step in when Jordan Lawler is drafted #1 this summer and Vandy won't miss a beat.

It's 100% a nonfactor

[BullyPulpit]

Just now, chapelbull said:

It absolutely isn't.  Nothing you said makes any sense.  You act like P5 schools don't know that some of their recruits are going to be drafted and are surprised when it happens.   No disrespect, I think you are ignorant to how this all works.    USF lost a good recruit last summer when South Carolina came a knocking.  It took the kid all of about 5 minutes to change his commitment to the P5 school.   Vanderbilt has 2 of the top 3 projected draft picks as current recruits (plus a current player as the third).   You don't think they are prepared for that.   Well they also have one of the top high school players in the area as a recruit too.  He's a SS who is more than ready to step in when Jordan Lawler is drafted #1 this summer and Vandy won't miss a beat.

It's 100% a nonfactor

I never said they aren't "prepared" for it, but when you don't have the elite of the elite out of high school going to the same 10 college programs, like they do in every other sport, it makes a difference. The P5s still may get the best of the rest, but the difference in talent is noticeable. Could you imagine how much more dominant the P5 programs would be if kids didn't jump from high school to MLB? Imagine the top 100 high schoolers going to a handful of programs that already have a large competitive advantage. The result would be dynasties like we have seen from Alabama and Clemson. Vanderbilt and Virginia would be playing for the title each year. I'm done arguing with you about this, because you clearly don't agree, but you misconstrued what the point I was making. 

[chapelbull]

7 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I never said they aren't "prepared" for it, but when you don't have the elite of the elite out of high school going to the same 10 college programs, like they do in every other sport, it makes a difference. The P5s still may get the best of the rest, but the difference in talent is noticeable. Could you imagine how much more dominant the P5 programs would be if kids didn't jump from high school to MLB? Imagine the top 100 high schoolers going to a handful of programs that already have a large competitive advantage. The result would be dynasties like we have seen from Alabama and Clemson. Vanderbilt and Virginia would be playing for the title each year. I'm done arguing with you about this, because you clearly don't agree, but you misconstrued what the point I was making. 

I get your point.... it is just misguided and inaccurate.   The underlined point doesn't have anything to do with the draft.   The bolded wouldn't change anything.   You'd have the same trickle down effect you have now, it just might change the talent level some that is trickling down and maybe even have more strong talent available for the mid-majors.   You're also acting like P5s don't dominate the college baseball landscape when in reality they do just not quite as much as softball does.

Edited March 11, 2021 by chapelbull

[Orlando Bull]

OK... I was an extended family member to the USF softball program for a while. Even my actual family is divided on the state of the program. This was many years ago, but I got to know Ken well during that time.

Ken is one of the best minds the game has to offer in my opinion. The dude would run trick plays that had good coaches (Lisa Fernandez if I recall) yelling at their players when they didn't fall for it. He wanted them to throw the ball to third for instance, they didn't, coach got mad.

From what I know, there are players that went through the system that love him, there are also those that hate him. There are some in between. On of his haters bothers me. Girl gave her heart and soul to the program and when she walked off the field for her last game, she cut ties completely. I can't explain that. I would also say that from the era that I was involved in, probably more left with a sense that he was a good coach, but not their cup of tea than those that left super happy. Heintz leaving was a big blow to the program in my mind, she was the balance. Whether or not he's a player's coach now, I think he got the job somewhat through a coup because the players wanted him. Nothing he did, I think he had another offer and was leaving and the players did whatever they could do to get the old coach to retire and him the job.

22 year old me felt like I knew a little bit, he treats different players differently. Some say favoritism, but to me it looked more like psychology. Strong mental players got tough treatment or silent treatment. Weaker players got coddled. Seemed like he was treating everyone by what they needed to be their best, the problem is that it looks like favoritism and breeds resentment.

I personally think that he is a huge competitor and USF can't compete with the big dogs, so he uses the National Team scratch that itch. He loves USF, but it wouldn't shock me if he has pulled back a little. Softball unfortunately is now a rich-kid sport. These girls are playing travel ball 52 weeks a year, all over the country. These SEC schools (that he's recruiting against) have all of the money and the "prestige". UF fields a team somewhere around 1996ish and immediately is successful. It's all about $$. Meanwhile Ken is running a top-25 program on an intramural field for decades. Unfortunately, I think it's like all USF sports, when we get a special player (Nevins, Triner, Ellis), we can be pretty good. Those players aren't lining up to come to USF for whatever reason. I am not sure if he can recruit better than he currently is. If he had his current facilities in 2000-ish, when really the whole SEC was just getting going in softball and he already had a proven winner, there is a chance he could have sustained that success back then and stayed at the top of the sport, but just like football being relegated to the AAC, it's hard when kids want to be a part of something that USF can't provide.

The irony is that he could probably win multiple WCWS championships in the right program, but that same program probably wouldn't put up with some of his antics. He's probably the best USF is going to get and USF is likely the best place for him as he faces very little scrutiny here.