Wilma: Track is shifting (slowly) NORTH

[Velcro]

Velcro, Gary and Bulleiver, can't I Please curse on this friggin thread?!?!

If any thread is worthy, this is it... but we can't control the language filter on a thread by thread basis... it filters everything.  

[BullDoug]

Track moved further south.  At 2pm the track was over Lake Ochee.

[Ricky the Bull]

Agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The 06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma

rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi

from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.

There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the

Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the  official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma

continues to move more to the left than  expected...substantial changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.

Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the timing...has decreased considerably.

[Guest S.  Bien]

two of the most accurate forecasting systems predict this thing to stall over the Yucatan and never make it out of the Carribbean.  Like I said before everyone had to make a decision early on when this storm was at it's apex, but by Friday I have a feeling most in FL will be breathing a sigh of relief, and we'll miss a home game due to caution.

However in this case caution is a good thing.

[chicky9914]

Zonald, please tell me you don't believe that man!

[kdawgy_orlando]

http://www.heidelbergerconsulting.com/hurrimap/

They allow you to zoom in using the Google map system.

[Bishop of Bulltown]

it'd be nice if they kept track of which one is usually more on target with their predictions

[Zonald]

Zonald, please tell me you don't believe that man!

Well, you never know what our government is up too!  lol.   ;D ;D ;D

[mutt]

If any thread is worthy, this is it... but we can't control the language filter on a thread by thread basis... it filters everything.  

I NEED A PLACE TO VENT !!!

[smazza]

play the game