Jump to content
  • Join us at The Bulls Pen

    It's simple, free and connects you to other Bulls fans!

Hurricane track as of 11am....


T-Man
 Share

Recommended Posts

Members do not see this ad, Register
Guest S.  Bien

Right now, the projected path puts land fall around San Marcos, FL, just south of Naples.

They hypothesis about this storm is that the high pressure cold front from the west that will push this storm east will sheer it pretty bad.  They believe by the time it enters the Gulf it could be a cat 3, and by the time it hits Southern Florida a soft cat 2.   That, and the fact they believe the sheer from the high pressure front will make it a smaller storm the expectation is that by landfall this thing will probably have Hurricane Force winds about 50 miles outside the center, and about Tropical Storm force winds about 125-150 miles from the eye.

San Marcos is about 180 miles south of Tampa, and there's absolutely no chance, should the storm make landfall in that region, that Tampa will get much more than breezing conditions.

HOWEVER, the problem I see is based on potential.  Once this thing hits the Gulf on Friday it will be around a cat 3 with over 115MPH, also because the forcasters are relying on another weather condition to push it southeast, they will not be able to give any certitude on Friday that the storm WON'T VEER further north to say make landfall between Sarasota and Venice (in which case we would suffer TS force winds).

Therefore, my concern is they cancel the game on Friday morning or Thursday night, this storm ends up hitting the Everglades by Sunday morning at a cat 2 around 95MPH and weakening fast, and Tampa gets a few drizels, and a slight western breeze.

That's how i see this thing transpiring. Unless the storm slows up, or makes a much more southern turn earlier then I can't see how they can't call it off when the decision must be made no later than Friday Morning.  Sorry, but after Katrina everyone making decisions will error to the side of caution.

The decision if this game is to be played this weekend is contigent on how this storm acts over the next 48 hours, some weakening, and significant slowing is the only thing that will help our cause out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bien ... Here is the discussion from the National Hurricane Center... they differ only slightly from your re-cap (emphasis added):

WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/181454.shtml

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest S.  Bien

I don't expect this thing to make landfall within 100 miles of Tampa, and nor do I expect the game to be played because by Thursday not enough certitude will be available to tell for certain that storm WON'T come within 100 miles of the Bay Area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share



  • Members do not see this ad. Join today.

  • Quotes

    "Everybody wants to have good stats; I just want to win."

    Jordan Cronkrite

     

×
×
  • Create New...

It appears you are using ad blocking tools.  This site is supported through ads.  Please disable in order to enjoy full access to The Bulls Pen.