No Fans for March Madness

[BullyPulpit]

24 minutes ago, puc86 said:

The science says that it’s a typical cold or flu for anyone under 60 and even the death rate is falling like a rock here as more cases pop up and only one Washington Nursing home comes to be. If you are healthy and not a senior citizen your odds of dying or having serious issues are as close to zero as the common flu, why ? Because math. Now your odds of not being able to retire on time or get toilet paper for the week or having to starve if you are in the service industry are quite strong but it will all be worth it just as long as we make sure no person ever contracts a communicable disease ever.

It's too early to make any determinations about the actual death rate. However, with the rate of spread, if just 5% of those infected required hospital treatment (which is likely a low estimate) our systems would be completely overwhelmed. Social distancing is the best solution at this point to prevent a failure of our medical system. 

We know the R0 is 2.2. The spread of this virus is like wildfire and lacks the mitigation of vaccination or immunity. Without any intervention, we would likely have 60% of the population infected (200 million) within the next two months. Even a mortality rate equivalent to the flu would result in 200,000 deaths. Everything we have seen worldwide suggests a higher death rate than the flu, even if it isn't quite the current 2% projection. 

[puc86]

3 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

It's too early to make any determinations about the actual death rate. However, with the rate of spread, if just 5% of those infected required hospital treatment (which is likely a low estimate) our systems would be completely overwhelmed. Social distancing is the best solution at this point to prevent a failure of our medical system. 

We know the R0 is 2.2. The spread of this virus is like wildfire and lacks the mitigation of vaccination or immunity. Without any intervention, we would likely have 60% of the population infected (200 million) within the next two months. Even a mortality rate equivalent to the flu would result in 200,000 deaths. Everything we have seen worldwide suggests a higher death rate than the flu, even if it isn't quite the current 2% projection. 

The reason most require hospitalization is because they are afraid that they are going to die even though their demographics have as close to zero percent chance of that happening as any other disease. The closest to reasonable currently over inflated death rate is at 1 percent and made up almost entirely of 80 something year old people living in a nursing home in Washington. Social distancing and flattening the curve works for every disease but we don’t typically do it for the flu because it’s not quite worth destroying the economy over.

[BullyPulpit]

10 minutes ago, puc86 said:

The reason most require hospitalization is because they are afraid that they are going to die even though their demographics have as close to zero percent chance of that happening as any other disease. The closest to reasonable currently over inflated death rate is at 1 percent and made up almost entirely of 80 something year old people living in a nursing home in Washington. Social distancing and flattening the curve works for every disease but we don’t typically do it for the flu because it’s not quite worth destroying the economy over.

Except you are missing the point that this isn't the flu. It is an easily contracted virus with no vaccine. Literally breathing near someone that is not even coughing can lead to infection. The R0 for the flu is about 1.3, but with vaccinations, the virus is controllable. With an R0 of 2.2 this virus spreads at a rate exponentially greater than the flu, and greater than any of the variations of the flu that have emerged over the years. 

The WHO is reporting that 40% of those infected have very minor symptoms. 40% develop pneumonia and could develop lung scarring, but won't require oxygen. 20% worldwide have required significant medical intervention. About 2% are dying. 

I'm sorry about your 401k. I imagine based upon your demeanor that you are around 35 or so. You will have time to recover. I'm more worried about my immunosuppressed 70 year-old mother that I help care for than my retirement account at this point, but we all have different priorities. 

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by BullyPulpit

[puc86]

6 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Except you are missing the point that this isn't the flu. It is an easily contracted virus with no vaccine. Literally breathing near someone that is not even coughing can lead to infection. The R0 for the flu is about 1.3, but with vaccinations, the virus is controllable. With an R0 of 2.2 this virus spreads at a rate exponentially greater than the flu, and greater than any of the variations of the flu that have emerged over the years. 

The WHO is reporting that 40% of those infected have very minor symptoms. 40% develop pneumonia and could develop lung scarring, but won't require oxygen. 20% worldwide have required significant medical intervention. About 2% are dying. 

I'm sorry about your 401k. I imagine based upon your demeanor that you are around 35 or so. I'm not worried about my immunosuppressed 70 year-old mother that I help care for than my retirement account at this point, but we all have different priorities. 

 

Maybe it’s because my mom is only around 54 and she is more worried about her portfolio than she is about dying too but I’m pretty sure if she was in the highest risk categories she would just choose to self isolate instead of taking the world down with her. I am sorry I said flu because I know that’s a very upsetting word for the alarmists but this certainly sounds, feels and behaves a lot more like the flu than the other horrible no good very bad pandemics that were going to wipe us off the face of the earth, never really materialized and yet were not treated with this absurd level of caution.

[JTrue]

18 hours ago, Triple B said:

The most disturbing aspect of all this is the run (no pun intended) on toilet paper like bottled water ahead of an incoming hurricane .... I'm assuming a lot of this blame falls squarely on you.

That's a pretty fair assumption.

[CousinRicky]

11 hours ago, puc86 said:

Maybe it’s because my mom is only around 54 and she is more worried about her portfolio than she is about dying too but I’m pretty sure if she was in the highest risk categories she would just choose to self isolate instead of taking the world down with her. I am sorry I said flu because I know that’s a very upsetting word for the alarmists but this certainly sounds, feels and behaves a lot more like the flu than the other horrible no good very bad pandemics that were going to wipe us off the face of the earth, never really materialized and yet were not treated with this absurd level of caution.

You mean like the guy that had been tested for 19 and then got on a plane?  I'm sure his kid thinks his dad would self isolate too.

[BrassBulls12]

Call a spade a spade here. We have to "overreact" because humans are stupid. Even when they know the right thing to do, they will do the opposite because they want to. 

[puc86]

51 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:

You mean like the guy that had been tested for 19 and then got on a plane?  I'm sure his kid thinks his dad would self isolate too.

It would be smart of that dad because apparently you cant even rely on your own kid much less a complete stranger. As for me I can rest easy every night knowing my dad will be saved for this horror. 

[CousinRicky]

5 minutes ago, puc86 said:

It would be smart of that dad because apparently you cant even rely on your own kid much less a complete stranger. As for me I can rest easy every night knowing my dad will be saved for this horror. 

You're missing my point and maybe I was being too subtle.  People are selfish and idiots.  Could have been me or you sitting next to that idiot.  You catch it, you're fine.  I catch it, who knows.  I'm relatively healthy and would like to think I'd be fine.  But I don't know.  We've been talking about cancelling events.  If games are held then I have to miss the game because of some idiot that is pretty sure he's sick is going to show up anyway???  If you cancel the event you don't have that problem.  We're going to have to agree to disagree on this.  

[puc86]

3 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:

You're missing my point and maybe I was being too subtle.  People are selfish and idiots.  Could have been me or you sitting next to that idiot.  You catch it, you're fine.  I catch it, who knows.  I'm relatively healthy and would like to think I'd be fine.  But I don't know.  We've been talking about cancelling events.  If games are held then I have to miss the game because of some idiot that is pretty sure he's sick is going to show up anyway???  If you cancel the event you don't have that problem.  We're going to have to agree to disagree on this.  

I completely agree with you that people are selfish idiots and that is why I think people need to take precautions on there own and can do so without needing anyone to legislate it for them. As a selfish idiot I am currently looking at leisure travel this weekend just because it is cheap and everything around me is cancelled for no reason, so IDK that this is exactly the intended consequence of shutting down everything with a crowd in areas that have zero cases and very little current reason for concern but here we are anyway and why should I be forced to be bored for even 5 minutes?