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Projected USF Win Totals...6.5...Do you think this is accurate?


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I think what this shows is that the bookies aren't very confident as to how anyone not names Memphis, UCF, or UCONN will perform. Phil Steele wrote an article that was on ESPN+ where he said he would take the under on USF winning 8 games or more. No one knows what to think of this team and, because we are a middling team in the AAC, none of the national publications pay attention. I am pretty confident that we win 7 games or more this season. 

ESPN's FPI has us winning 6.7 games (so essentially 7). We are relatively heavy favorites in 4 games (UCONN, NAVY, SMU, Sc State - 70 to 98% likelihood of winning), we are moderately favored in two games (ECU and Temple - 62 to 65%), the Georgia Tech and Memphis games are close to a toss up (47.3% and 43%, respectively). Against Wisconsin, BYU, and Cincy we are moderate underdogs (33.8 to 35.8%) and against UCF we are heavy underdogs (17.7%). 

Assuming we win and lose the heavy favorite and underdog games, we would be 4-1. If we were to win 1 out of the toss-ups (Ga Tech and Memphis) and 1 out of Wisconsin, BYU, and Cincy, where we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning each game, that would have us at 6-4. We would just have to win one out of Temple and ECU to get to 7 wins on the season. Win both of those and we are at 8. 

I would bet the over, as I believe ESPN's FPI can't adequately account for the  impact of our transfers, the growth of our young defenders, and the elimination of the players that were causing unrest in the locker room. If everyone was well informed about USF and how they look going into the season, I would set the O/U at 8 wins for this team if I was looking to get even money from bettors. 

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34 minutes ago, El_Toro_86 said:

Considering we’re on a 6 game losing streak and even in some of our wins last year we looked totally craptastic, see Illinois, UConn and Tulsa, I don’t have a problem with this.  Before the sunshine pumpers jump on me about new coaches, weight gain, P5 transfers etc, I get it and hope it all comes to fruition, however, looking it objectively from outside this board, I can see why Vegas puts the win total at 6.5.  

 

If I am a bookie and trying to get even money from the uninformed/under informed public, I agree with you. However, having an insider's perspective of what is going on with this team, I think the safe O/U number would be 7.5 or 8. The fear for the bookies if they set it that high is that all of the action would come in on the under given last year's collapse and, if USF were to under perform this season, they would potentially take a bath.  

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44 minutes ago, BDYZR said:

Image may contain: one or more people and people playing sports

We're a lot of football removed from that hit. And most of it was bad football.

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Guest Jonesy Bull

I'm already on record that we will go 9-3.  That probably is a little bit too ambitious on my part, I may be drinking the Kool Aid.  But hell, its my Bulls and we are due for some good times for a change!

So taking the over baby!

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2 hours ago, JTrue said:

If you're planning on betting the under, double down on CCS getting fired. If he goes 6-6, he gone.

I agree.  At that point you would have to think Kelly would want to bring in his own guy.

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I agree with 9-3.   I also hope that these articles just keep coming!   I hope that the bulletin boards in the locker room have these headlines and more.  Hell, throw the articles about the "Great Collapse" of last year up on the walls too.   That should be enough to push us to early success.  Over the years we peak early and then **** the bed late.  I am hoping that the "Great Collapse" of last year keeps the boys grinding all year.

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We're undefeated until we ain't!!! :GoBulls:

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1 hour ago, USFRaider said:

I agree.  At that point you would have to think Kelly would want to bring in his own guy.

Six wins is not even a reality 2 me. I cant see us losing less than 9 games, and really feel this is a minimum 10 win season. If we can win 7 games while playing bad in EVERY game last year, then we can definitely do better this year after all of the player and coaching changes and summer conditioning. 

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2 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

Six wins is not even a reality 2 me. I cant see us losing less than 9 games, and really feel this is a minimum 10 win season. If we can win 7 games while playing bad in EVERY game last year, then we can definitely do better this year after all of the player and coaching changes and summer conditioning. 

Six wins isn't a reality to me either.  I have the Bulls going 7-5.

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6.5 seems reasonable to me

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