What we have lost as a fan base

[Triple B]

2 minutes ago, puc86 said:

You are allowing your view to draw conclusions and correlation does not equal causation. UCF did not fill their stadium by winning the AAC they went undefeated for two years playing in 2 NY6 games and beating Auburn in one of them. If they had managed to lose a few games, win the AAC championship and play in the Boca Bowl their stadium would look much the same as it always has. If we host the AAC championship game we will have roughly a week to sell as many tickets as we can starting at a baseline of zero, having zero season tickets and zero people being let in for free all at an inflated rate. If you honestly believe we will somehow parlay that into a 25% increase in attendance I think you are amazingly optimistic and I envy you and hope you are right. I would probably attend had I already rearranged my sock drawer and washed my hair but I also attend the majority of our games against the dreck of the college football world, I like most on here are an outlier but the market has already spoken loud and clear on how it feels about AAC football. For me and seeing things that have happened in reality this is what an extra home game against an opponent no one cares about looks like- 

C'mon, puc, I've got your back on some of this but posting a pic of that Gasparilla Bowl to try and somehow equate that to the interest in a ccg is delusional even for you ...

[puc86]

Just now, Triple B said:

C'mon, puc, I've got your back on some of this but posting a pic of that Gasparilla Bowl to try and somehow equate that to the interest in a ccg is delusional even for you ...

Its the closest thing that we have for comparison and they actually had more time to sell tickets. I agree the free fall that we had that led to that attendance is not comparable to what I assume will be more winning to get to the conference game but while I would expect more people than the Gasparilla Bowl I would still expect less than an average home game because of the issues I mentioned previously. Do you really think that all of the season ticket holders that buy tickets to give them away, students that can all come for free and people that buy cheap after market tickets or get them comped regularly will all be lining up in droves to spend more money on a ticket than usual all with the added benefit of being on short notice? 

[BullyPulpit]

6 minutes ago, puc86 said:

You are allowing your view to draw conclusions and correlation does not equal causation. UCF did not fill their stadium by winning the AAC they went undefeated for two years playing in 2 NY6 games and beating Auburn in one of them. If they had managed to lose a few games, win the AAC championship and play in the Boca Bowl their stadium would look much the same as it always has. If we host the AAC championship game we will have roughly a week to sell as many tickets as we can starting at a baseline of zero, having zero season tickets and zero people being let in for free all at an inflated rate. If you honestly believe we will somehow parlay that into a 25% increase in attendance I think you are amazingly optimistic and I envy you and hope you are right. I would probably attend had I already rearranged my sock drawer and washed my hair but I also attend the majority of our games against the dreck of the college football world, I like most on here are an outlier but the market has already spoken loud and clear on how it feels about AAC football. For me and seeing things that have happened in reality this is what an extra home game against an opponent no one cares about looks like- 

You are making assumptions as well that you cannot support. UCF can't get to a NY6 game without first winning the ACCCG. It is a necessary and, therefore, very meaningful component in the causal relationship that I was highlighting to overcome the generalities upon which you were basing your argument. Furthermore, I concede that in order to get maximum value from the impact of winning an AACCG it would behoove us to also make it to, and win, an NY6 game. That is why I postulated that an 11-1 or 12-0 USF would be likely to get between 35,000 to 42,000 through the turnstiles for the AACCG. 

Neither of us can say what back-to-back ACCCG wins would have done for UCF without the NY6 bowls that came along with it. I would be relatively confident in positing that UCF would have experienced some degree of increased ticket sales, increased donation, and an overall increase in the local interest of the program even without the NY6 bowl win and appearance. You make it sound as if it would be completely meaningless to the health of the program to appear in and win the ACCCG. On that point, I have to thoroughly disagree with you. 

[BullyPulpit]

5 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Its the closest thing that we have for comparison and they actually had more time to sell tickets. I agree the free fall that we had that led to that attendance is not comparable to what I assume will be more winning to get to the conference game but while I would expect more people than the Gasparilla Bowl I would still expect less than an average home game because of the issues I mentioned previously. Do you really think that all of the season ticket holders that buy tickets to give them away, students that can all come for free and people that buy cheap after market tickets or get them comped regularly will all be lining up in droves to spend more money on a ticket than usual all with the added benefit of being on short notice? 

I think USF would recognize the possibility and have a plan in place to minimize the impact on the short turnaround. I would have a hard time seeing us with fewer than 35,000 in announced attendance. 

[puc86]

Just now, BullyPulpit said:

You are making assumptions as well that you cannot support. UCF can't get to a NY6 game without first winning the ACCCG. It is a necessary and, therefore, very meaningful component in the causal relationship that I was highlighting to overcome the generalities upon which you were basing your argument. Furthermore, I concede that in order to get maximum value from the impact of winning an AACCG it would behoove us to also make it to, and win, an NY6 game. That is why I postulated that an 11-1 or 12-0 USF would be likely to get between 35,000 to 42,000 through the turnstiles for the AACCG. 

Neither of us can say what back-to-back ACCCG wins would have done for UCF without the NY6 bowls that came along with it. I would be relatively confident in positing that UCF would have experienced some degree of increased ticket sales, increased donation, and an overall increase in the local interest of the program even without the NY6 bowl win and appearance. You make it sound as if it would be completely meaningless to the health of the program to appear in and win the ACCCG. On that point, I have to thoroughly disagree with you. 

Well sometimes I am a tad extreme and hyperbolic but I do really believe that NY6 games are what bring real value to an AAC championship and that going undefeated for two years would bring a wealth of attendance even to a team that was independent. Is it possible that there are a few people that would be like “wow USF won the AAC I better buy season tickets?” Sure I guess anything is possible but if we are 10-3 and played in the Birmingham bowl I do not believe it will be statistically significant but if we are 14-0 and beat a P5 team in an NY6 game I would expect a huge bump. As for the championship game it’s more a logistics thing and the numbers of current active fans, maybe you are right and people are just waiting for that game but I would expect less than our typical home attendance for the plethora of reasons I have already expressed.

[puc86]

2 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I think USF would recognize the possibility and have a plan in place to minimize the impact on the short turnaround. I would have a hard time seeing us with fewer than 35,000 in announced attendance. 

I guess there is always a first time for everything. I expect us to plan on miracling  our way to the attendance you desire and being slapped in the face with the cold hard reality that is my prediction.

[Triple B]

10 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Its the closest thing that we have for comparison and they actually had more time to sell tickets. I agree the free fall that we had that led to that attendance is not comparable to what I assume will be more winning to get to the conference game but while I would expect more people than the Gasparilla Bowl I would still expect less than an average home game because of the issues I mentioned previously. Do you really think that all of the season ticket holders that buy tickets to give them away, students that can all come for free and people that buy cheap after market tickets or get them comped regularly will all be lining up in droves to spend more money on a ticket than usual all with the added benefit of being on short notice? 

Sad thing is you're probably more right than even I want to admit ..... and hosting an ccg has already been something I looked forward to but also dreaded from that attendance standpoint. If there isn't somehow a quick, convenient tie in to season tix holders, with that short of a turn around, I don't think we get to attendance numbers attained during the season ....... although, if we're highly ranked in the CFP poll, possibly even sniffing around a playoff spot, that could do the trick. There's just too much other stuff going on at that time, with Bucs, Lightning and even the twin allegiance Bulls fans who may be headed to a UF or FSU playoff game.

[puc86]

7 minutes ago, Triple B said:

Sad thing is you're probably more right than even I want to admit ..... and hosting an ccg has already been something I looked forward to but also dreaded from that attendance standpoint. If there isn't somehow a quick, convenient tie in to season tix holders, with that short of a turn around, I don't think we get to attendance numbers attained during the season ....... although, if we're highly ranked in the CFP poll, possibly even sniffing around a playoff spot, that could do the trick. There's just too much other stuff going on at that time, with Bucs, Lightning and even the twin allegiance Bulls fans who may be headed to a UF or FSU playoff game.

If we are riding high on the bandwagon and a top ranked team I think we can draw respectable numbers but if we are relying solely on the fact that its an AAC championship game I think it will be embarrassing. Before UCF went undefeated and was the  #12 team in the nation and playing the #16 Tigers 35k would be the highest announced attendance for the game and it took two solid years of being undefeated to get to close to an announced sellout. If one team is barely top 25 and the other unranked but its just for a conference championship the numbers look sadly close to my prediction should we fall in that scenario. 

[BullyPulpit]

4 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Well sometimes I am a tad extreme and hyperbolic but I do really believe that NY6 games are what bring real value to an AAC championship and that going undefeated for two years would bring a wealth of attendance even to a team that was independent. Is it possible that there are a few people that would be like “wow USF won the AAC I better buy season tickets?” Sure I guess anything is possible but if we are 10-3 and played in the Birmingham bowl I do not believe it will be statistically significant but if we are 14-0 and beat a P5 team in an NY6 game I would expect a huge bump. As for the championship game it’s more a logistics thing and the numbers of current active fans, maybe you are right and people are just waiting for that game but I would expect less than our typical home attendance for the plethora of reasons I have already expressed.

Fair enough. I too think there are varying degrees to which we could expect a positive return from an ACCCG win, and it is naturally coupled with the NY6. But you can't diminish the importance of the AACCG because that is the only way (realistically) to the NY6. 

The first scenario you point out, a 9-3 regular season, would probably do very little to move the needle in terms of overall excitement for the program. In that case, I think we would see a modest increase in season ticket sales. Where the title in that scenario would matter would be with the bigger donors. Getting them to pony up tens of thousands more in order to maintain the momentum and the coaching staff would be a reasonable expectation. 

A 10-2 regular season could lead to a NY6 game depending on how the champions in the other conferences fared and to whom we lost. In that case, dropping a game to Wisconsin and to Memphis, but turning around and beating Memphis in the ACCCG might be enough to get us to the NY6. A scenario without the NY6 would likely lead to a similar outcome as a 9-3 performance. 

An 11-1 record means we are guaranteed a spot in the NY6 so long as the MWC conference champ isn't undefeated. There will be enough solid teams in the AAC this year (Cincy, UCF, and Memphis should all be good) to justify our place in the NY6. It is in this scenario in which the maximum returns could be expected, especially with a NY6 win over a team like Florida or Oklahoma. 

A 12-0 season is where things could get really interesting for USF, especially if Wisconsin performs well in Big Ten play and if BYU can win at least 3 of its first 4 games (Utah, Tennessee, USC, and Washington). 

[BullyPulpit]

3 minutes ago, puc86 said:

If we are riding high on the bandwagon and a top ranked team I think we can draw respectable numbers but if we are relying solely on the fact that its an AAC championship game I think it will be embarrassing. Before UCF went undefeated and was the  #12 team in the nation and playing the #16 Tigers 35k would be the highest announced attendance for the game and it took two solid years of being undefeated to get to close to an announced sellout. If one team is barely top 25 and the other unranked but its just for a conference championship the numbers look sadly close to my prediction should we fall in that scenario. 

There are a lot of variables. If the Gators aren't in the SEC Championship and the Noles perform as expected (ie. worse than Clemson) and the Bucs season is in the tank, it could present a pretty good opportunity for us to pack the lower bowl. My prediction of 35,000 to 42,000 looks pretty reasonable given the prior turnouts from AACCGs past, and I proffered that number without referencing the prior attendance numbers.