What we have lost as a fan base

[puc86]

2 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

Fair enough. I too think there are varying degrees to which we could expect a positive return from an ACCCG win, and it is naturally coupled with the NY6. But you can't diminish the importance of the AACCG because that is the only way (realistically) to the NY6. 

The first scenario you point out, a 9-3 regular season, would probably do very little to move the needle in terms of overall excitement for the program. In that case, I think we would see a modest increase in season ticket sales. Where the title in that scenario would matter would be with the bigger donors. Getting them to pony up tens of thousands more in order to maintain the momentum and the coaching staff would be a reasonable expectation. 

A 10-2 regular season could lead to a NY6 game depending on how the champions in the other conferences fared and to whom we lost. In that case, dropping a game to Wisconsin and to Memphis, but turning around and beating Memphis in the ACCCG might be enough to get us to the NY6. A scenario without the NY6 would likely lead to a similar outcome as a 9-3 performance. 

An 11-1 record means we are guaranteed a spot in the NY6 so long as the MWC conference champ isn't undefeated. There will be enough solid teams in the AAC this year (Cincy, UCF, and Memphis should all be good) to justify our place in the NY6. It is in this scenario in which the maximum returns could be expected, especially with a NY6 win over a team like Florida or Oklahoma. 

A 12-0 season is where things could get really interesting for USF, especially if Wisconsin performs well in Big Ten play and if BYU can win at least 3 of its first 4 games (Utah, Tennessee, USC, and Washington). 

Lets just hope for d and then we can both be right and not have to worry about how big the bell curve is (Even though I am right and its insanely steep as evidenced by Navy's attendance leading up to the AAC Championship vs the AAC Championship). 

 

[puc86]

3 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

There are a lot of variables. If the Gators aren't in the SEC Championship and the Noles perform as expected (ie. worse than Clemson) and the Bucs season is in the tank, it could present a pretty good opportunity for us to pack the lower bowl. My prediction of 35,000 to 42,000 looks pretty reasonable given the prior turnouts from AACCGs past, and I proffered that number without referencing the prior attendance numbers. 

Except only one looks like the situation I described, an AAC Championship for AAC championship sake and there numbers look exactly like what I predicted would happen in that scenario. 

[BullyPulpit]

6 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Except only one looks like the situation I described, an AAC Championship for AAC championship sake and there numbers look exactly like what I predicted would happen in that scenario. 

I think you are discounting how many Navy alum travel to their games in order to reach that 35k to 36k number. One week's notice impacts them more than just about any team in the country. Additionally, many alums are already booked to come up the following week for the Army game, further leading to a decline in attendance. I'm not suggesting that a 9-3 USF versus a 9-3 Houston would break the turnstiles, but I still think 35k would be a reasonable expectation in that scenario. 

[puc86]

13 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I think you are discounting how many Navy alum travel to their games in order to reach that 35k to 36k number. One week's notice impacts them more than just about any team in the country. Additionally, many alums are already booked to come up the following week for the Army game, further leading to a decline in attendance. I'm not suggesting that a 9-3 USF versus a 9-3 Houston would break the turnstiles, but I still think 35k would be a reasonable expectation in that scenario. 

I hope we never have to find out and even if we do that you are right and I am woefully wrong but I fear I would be closer to right than I would like to be. 

[BullsOnParadeTG]

I dunno. For the Bowl last year I renewed my season tix way early in order to get free tickets to the bowl game. It was not a huge game but it was one more game I could go to. Even after the end of season slide I was still motivated to renew tickets and go to the bowl game with little notice. If we won the AAC I would definitely be going to that game. I am sure a lot would. All fans know there is little notice when it comes to conference championships. You just do. 

[Guest Jonesy Bull]

3 minutes ago, Nick Carroll said:

I dunno. For the Bowl last year I renewed my season tix way early in order to get free tickets to the bowl game. It was not a huge game but it was one more game I could go to. Even after the end of season slide I was still motivated to renew tickets and go to the bowl game with little notice. If we won the AAC I would definitely be going to that game. I am sure a lot would. All fans know there is little notice when it comes to conference championships. You just do. 

If we were to get a Home game to play for our first Conference Championship EVER, then I think we get to the 30-35K range.  The caveat is that we would have to at least be ranked in the Top 25 and not have backed into the game because our division was weak, but we are actually playing good exciting football leading up to it.

I might be in denial, but I just don't want to believe that we wouldn't get pretty good attendance for something that would be historical for the program. 

[BullsOnParadeTG]

1 minute ago, Jonesy Bull said:

If we were to get a Home game to play for our first Conference Championship EVER, then I think we get to the 30-35K range.  The caveat is that we would have to at least be ranked in the Top 25 and not have backed into the game because our division was weak, but we are actually playing good exciting football leading up to it.

I might be in denial, but I just don't want to believe that we wouldn't get pretty good attendance for something that would be historical for the program. 

I agree.. I would just show up and have fun. Hopefully even with all of the back and forth on this thread most if not all of you would too. 

[puc86]

4 minutes ago, Nick Carroll said:

I dunno. For the Bowl last year I renewed my season tix way early in order to get free tickets to the bowl game. It was not a huge game but it was one more game I could go to. Even after the end of season slide I was still motivated to renew tickets and go to the bowl game with little notice. If we won the AAC I would definitely be going to that game. I am sure a lot would. All fans know there is little notice when it comes to conference championships. You just do. 

You are suffering from proximity bias. You are impassioned, a season ticket holder, post on your teams message board and are one of very few fans that went to a bowl game that could go for free. That so few people went to the bowl game for free, while you did should show you that most fans are not as motivated as you are. If you are in the thick of fandom its easy to believe that there are lots of people that would do the same thing you find would be a reasonable expression of your fandom but if you step out the bubble for a second its pretty obvious that the number of like minded individuals is currently hovering somewhere around 20k people. 

[Guest Jonesy Bull]

Just now, Nick Carroll said:

I agree.. I would just show up and have fun. Hopefully even with all of the back and forth on this thread most if not all of you would too. 

Plus keep in mind, if we were to get into this game, it likely means that we would have beaten UCF the previous week, and if they are a good team which they are predicted to be.....then that certainly would add an additional buzz for the fan base.

[BullsOnParadeTG]

2 minutes ago, puc86 said:

You are suffering from proximity bias. You are impassioned, a season ticket holder, post on your teams message board and are one of very few fans that went to a bowl game that could go for free. That so few people went to the bowl game for free, while you did should show you that most fans are not as motivated as you are. If you are in the thick of fandom its easy to believe that there are lots of people that would do the same thing you find would be a reasonable expression of your fandom but if you step out the bubble for a second its pretty obvious that the number of like minded individuals is currently hovering somewhere around 20k people. 

Partially true but also I can only speak of my reality. I can name probably 10 people that usually use one of my 6 season tickets each week that would definitely buy a ticket to a conference championship game at home. I know this because those same people buy tickets to go watch the UCF games when they are played in Orlando. 

Yes I am speaking from my small bubble but that is what I have control of. It is easier than poking holes in the whole program. Worry about what you can control.