Carter Stewart

[JTrue]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/carter-stewart-the-braves-top-2018-pick-reportedly-opts-for-deal-in-japan-over-2019-mlb-draft/

Might turn out to be worth tens of millions for him in the long run. 

[BrassBulls12]

I don't know about this move. He is obviously doing this because he wasn't going to get even close to what he turned down last season. He is going to be playing in the minor leagues of the japanese club and the Deal he is signing is 6 years at 7 mil. plus there's this 

"Stewart's future in MLB now gets even murkier. By signing a deal in Japan, he will now have to go through the posting system all players from that league must go through if they want to play in MLB."

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-2019-braves-selection-carter-stewart-agrees-to-contract-in-japan/dyi7ju5bffl71i2irlhl96oe7

Now if he studs out and stays healthy he could come back and go straight to the show, but it's a bit of a gamble to say this will work out for him as he could have made the same money or more over the next six years here in the states as teams are starting to pay young studs good money. 

[JTrue]

25 minutes ago, BrassBulls12 said:

I don't know about this move. He is obviously doing this because he wasn't going to get even close to what he turned down last season. He is going to be playing in the minor leagues of the japanese club and the Deal he is signing is 6 years at 7 mil. plus there's this 

"Stewart's future in MLB now gets even murkier. By signing a deal in Japan, he will now have to go through the posting system all players from that league must go through if they want to play in MLB."

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-2019-braves-selection-carter-stewart-agrees-to-contract-in-japan/dyi7ju5bffl71i2irlhl96oe7

Now if he studs out and stays healthy he could come back and go straight to the show, but it's a bit of a gamble to say this will work out for him as he could have made the same money or more over the next six years here in the states as teams are starting to pay young studs good money. 

Let's say best case works out for him whether he goes to Japan or reenters the draft.

Scenario 1) He's on a reasonable timetable. He makes his major league debut June of 2022 at 22 years old. He's made a total of $2 million to this point and chugged his way through the minors. In 2025, he's 25 years old and made $3.5 million (if you use today's minimum salary). Whoever drafts him delays his start time and he gets to be a free agent in 2029 for the first time in his career and he gets something like 7 years and $140 million as a 29 year old.

30 year old earnings - $23.5 million

Career - $150 million or so

Scenario 2) He comes to majors at 25 for the 2025 season with more than $10 million in his pocket. His contract with Fukuoka calls for $7 million over 6 years with significant escalating clauses based on performance. In 2025, he is declared an international free agent and signs an 8 year $200 million dollar deal. By the time he's 30, he's missed out on three years of major league experience and made more than $100 million dollars.

30 year old earnings - $132 million

Career - $230 million or so

Edited May 22, 2019 by JTrue

[BrassBulls12]

22 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Let's say best case works out for him whether he goes to Japan or reenters the draft.

Scenario 1) Let's say he's on a reasonable timetable. He makes his major league debut June of 2022 at 22 years old. He's made a total of $2 million to this point and chugged his way through the minors. In 2025, he's 25 years old and made $3.5 million (if you use today's minimum salary).

Scenario 2) He comes to majors at 25 for the 2025 season with more than $10 million in his pocket. His contract with Fukuoka calls for $7 million over 6 years with significant escalating clauses based on performance. He gives up 3 major league seasons to triple his income.

Well scenario one is based on minimum pay and scenario two is assuming best possible pay. I haven't seen anything about escalating clauses and I doubt they would kick in until he makes to Nippon league anyway. 

The whole scenario depends on what he makes in those three years. look at the contracts Nola (25), Marquez (24) and severino (25). Lance Mccullers, who is on about the same track as your scenario (he 25 with three years exp) is set to make 4 million this season.  Salary trends are moving towards paying young players over vets. This move is just classic Boras, who is hoping he doesn't spend the entire six years there. 

Edited May 22, 2019 by BrassBulls12

[BrassBulls12]

28 minutes ago, JTrue said:

In 2025, he is declared an international free agent and signs an 8 year $200 million dollar deal

Ohtani didn't get that money, I have a hard time believing he will. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/shohei-ohtani-24661/ 

It's a gamble. 

Edit: I see now that Ohtani didn't wait to be a unrestricted free agent but I still have a hard time believing he matches that.

Edited May 22, 2019 by BrassBulls12

[BrassBulls12]

a closer example would Kikuchi (who is also represented by Boras) who got 43 million over 7 and it's all assuming he becomes a top pitcher in Japan. otherwise team won't want to pay a big salary plus a posting fee. 

Edited May 22, 2019 by BrassBulls12

[JTrue]

41 minutes ago, BrassBulls12 said:

a closer example would Kikuchi (who is also represented by Boras) who got 43 million over 7 and it's all assuming he becomes a top pitcher in Japan. otherwise team won't want to pay a big salary plus a posting fee. 

Of course...all of this is predicated on his production, but that's equally true here. All things equal, he makes more money both in going to Japan and by shaving 4 years off his free agency.

[BrassBulls12]

The contract includes escalators that could take it beyond the $7 million-plus guaranteed. Had he opted to stay in the United States, Stewart likely would have received a bonus of less than $2 million and made even less over the next six years, barring a rapid ascent to the major leagues.

i found something about the escalators but there's not a lot of details on when and how much. 

The secondary benefit for Stewart could be even more lucrative: International free agents 25 or older can sign with any major league team without restrictions, so long as their Japanese team enters them into the posting system.

This is the part I have the most issues with 

Were Stewart to play in Japan for the next six years, sources told ESPN, he would be considered, under the present rules, an international free agent eligible for posting.

Although the limit of four foreign players per Japanese team could stem an influx of American players, elite amateur talent could begin to use the prospect of going to Japan -- not just for the greater guarantee in money but the earlier access to free agency -- as a cudgel in negotiations.

Stewart's agent, Scott Boras, has long tried to use the prospect of taking an amateur player to Japan for leverage purposes. Never until Stewart had one come close to agreeing to a deal. Boras, who has exploited multiple draft loopholes in the past, opted for a 7,500-mile end-around with Stewart.

Here is the true story. This is just an experiment by Boas and he finally found a lab rat. 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26797380/pitcher-skips-mlb-draft-japan-deal

I see the value in the short term as he was wasn't gonna come close to what he getting in that six year deal. But i'm not sold that this leads to more money in the long term had he stayed. It adds another hoop teams will have to jump through to give him big money and it all depends on if the Japanese team wants to give him up. 

[BrassBulls12]

6 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Of course...all of this is predicated on his production, but that's equally true here. All things equal, he makes more money both in going to Japan and by shaving 4 years off his free agency.

If he is allowed to leave after six years......I realize there's a good chance he will but he could be held for nine years or more depending on when he gets promoted from the Japanese minor leagues. If he becomes good enough to be a profitable posted player, why wouldn't be good enough to get one of these big money pre- free agency deals that we are seeing young pitchers get. 

Edited May 22, 2019 by BrassBulls12

[JTrue]

8 minutes ago, BrassBulls12 said:

If he is allowed to leave after six years......I realize there's a good chance he will but he could be held for nine years. If he becomes good enough to be a profitable posted player, why wouldn't be good enough to get one of these big money pre- free agency deals that we are seeing young pitchers get. 

Tanaka left at roughly the same age and scored 7 years $155. And I doubt the NPB could get away with holding an American players rights for over the 6 years. Who was the last pitcher to get $155 million with 4 years left before free agency? The biggest dollars/youngest age combo I could find was Snell's recent signing, 5/$50 or Nola at 4/$45.

Edited May 22, 2019 by JTrue