This morning in the American Athletic MBB

[79 Bull]

Any word on rescheduling Charlotte this year?  Would help to boost the record but not the NET ranking as Charlotte sits at 264.

[bullsbucsfan426]

Just now, 79 Bull said:

Any word on rescheduling Charlotte this year?  Would help to boost the record but not the NET ranking as Charlotte sits at 264.

I heard rumors on TOS they are working on getting a better game scheduled. Looking at the schedule, we would probably need it done this week because the best available date is between the Temple and Houston games (there's a week gap between 2/16 and 2/23). 

[BullyPulpit]

8 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

We go 26-7 and we are in the NCAA's

History says it would likely be a close call. Wichita State, which obtained a 7 seed in the tournament, finished the conference tournament with a 25-7 record last season. In non-conference play they had 4 wins against teams with an RPI of 71 or better, and 5 wins against teams with an RPI under 100. USF has zero such wins this season. Their two non-conference losses were close losses to top 25 Oklahoma and a solid top-75 Notre Dame squad. We have a bad non-conference loss to The Citadel and an acceptable loss to Georgetown. Their non-conference RPI was 54th. Ours this season is 155, and our non-conference SOS is somewhere in the 2 or 3 hundreds depending on where you look.

A closer example from last season would be St. Bonaventure. They were one of the last 4 teams in the tournament. They finished the season 25-7. They had a non-conference RPI of 21 and a non-conference SOS of 55. What likely put them over the top was a true road win over Syracuse, that win complemented a true road win over Buffalo as well. Last year's Atlantic 10 conference was nowhere near as good as this year's American conference, and I would think the quality of the AAC would be enough to put us in, but it certainly would be a close call. At 26-7 we would be looking at a 10 or 11 seed. I would have to agree that it would be tough to deny a USF team that would have won 13 of its final 14 games of the season. Coincidentally, that is exactly what St. Bonaventure did to eek into the tournament last season.  

[BullyPulpit]

18 minutes ago, bullsbucsfan426 said:

I heard rumors on TOS they are working on getting a better game scheduled. Looking at the schedule, we would probably need it done this week because the best available date is between the Temple and Houston games (there's a week gap between 2/16 and 2/23). 

Did they happen to mention any potential opponents? I would target one of the higher ranked mid-majors if we could. A quality win over a team like Buffalo would go a long way towards helping our postseason aspirations. 

[bullsbucsfan426]

1 hour ago, BullyPulpit said:

Did they happen to mention any potential opponents? I would target one of the higher ranked mid-majors if we could. A quality win over a team like Buffalo would go a long way towards helping our postseason aspirations. 

They did not say, but here's who has open dates that week and could conceivably help us at least assure an NIT bid: 

ACC

Miami (ranked 110 in NET, 9-12 record). Not sure if they'll travel, but might sell some tickets given the in-state fan base. Probably not strong enough to boost our resume. 

Atlantic 10

George Mason (ranked 126 in NET, 13-9 record). Would likely love to get out of the cold, but doesn't move needle on attendance or schedule strength. 

Atlantic Sun

Liberty (ranked 50 in NET, 19-5 record). This would be ideal as they are well ranked, we could beat them at home, and they could probably use it for scheduling purposes as they have a game three days later against UNF in Jacksonville (saves travel costs). Given it's Liberty would probably sell a ton of tickets. 

Big 12

Kansas (17 in NET, 19-5 record). This would be ambitious and perhaps unrealistic, especially because they have a tough road game against Texas Tech three days later. They may be willing to play us if we travel. 

Texas Tech (16 in NET, 19-5 record). See above. 

Texas (41 in NET, 12-10 record). Strong team, probably would make us travel, but winning in Austin would be a tier 1 win. 

Big Sky

Montana (108 in NET, 15-6 record). Would give us a decent win, but not sure it moves the needle. Montana probably doesn't want to fly this far as they'd have to fly all day and tickets are $400 RT as we speak. We would probably slaughter them after all that travel. 

Big South

Winthrop (166 in NET, 14-8 record). They won't have to fly very far, but they don't help us at all. Hard pass. 

CUSA

The entire league is off that week. Utterly bizarre. ODU is their top team and ranked 89 in the NET, so it would be a good win at home. North texas is 112 in the NET. I wouldn't consider scheduling anyone else from CUSA. We already beat FIU. 

Colonial

Delaware (228 in NET, 14-10 record). In other words, hard pass. 

MAC

They are fully scheduled out and Buffalo is playing on Tuesday and Friday that week. Answering only because you asked about Buffalo. 

Southern

Wofford (28 in NET, 19-4 record). Can we beat these guys? I think it's possible. They'd really boost our resume. They're off that week. 

Southland

Abilene Christian (161 NET, 18-4 record). Certainly a win, but doesn't really move the needle. 

WAC

New Mexico State (61 NET, 18-4 record). They are completely off that week and would have plenty of time to recover from that travel. I suspect they would probably want this game as well to boost their seeding hopes for the NCAA tournament (because it's likely a resume builder for them and they would want to offset a bad loss to California Baptist). 

If I had to rank my top 5 on scheduling from this group
 

1. Liberty-winnable game, the scheduling will work well as they can hop on a fast flight to Jacksonville after the game. 

2. New Mexico State-moves the needle, good schedule timing for them so they would be willing to come here

3. Old Dominion-good home win, will probably be willing to come here and get out of the cold weather for a bit. 

4. Wofford-Would be a tough team to beat, they did have a game against Stanford postponed so they're willing to travel if it benefits them. They do have to go on the road to Furman three days later, but it's a 50 minute drive-not exactly a long trip. 

5. Miami-their ACC arrogance would probably lead them to insist the game is played in Miami, and they are basically "ok" this year, yet it would be a good win in Tampa or Miami. They have had a decent reputation in the ACC the past few years so it would turn heads from a program building standpoint. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2019 by bullsbucsfan426

[BullyPulpit]

8 minutes ago, bullsbucsfan426 said:

They did not say, but here's who has open dates that week and could conceivably help us at least assure an NIT bid: 

ACC

Miami (ranked 110 in NET, 9-12 record). Probably could get them to travel and might sell some tickets given the in-state fan base. Probably not strong enough to boost our resume. 

Atlantic 10

George Mason (ranked 126 in NET, 13-9 record). Would likely love to get out of the cold, but doesn't move needle on attendance or schedule strength. 

Atlantic Sun

Liberty (ranked 50 in NET, 19-5 record). This would be ideal as they are well ranked, we could beat them at home, and they could probably use it for scheduling purposes as they have a game three days later against UNF in Jacksonville (saves travel costs). Given it's Liberty would probably sell a ton of tickets. 

Big 12

Kansas (17 in NET, 19-5 record). This would be ambitious and perhaps unrealistic, especially because they have a tough road game against Texas Tech three days later. They may be willing to play us if we travel. 

Texas Tech (16 in NET, 19-5 record). See above. 

Texas (41 in NET, 12-10 record). Strong team, probably would make us travel, but winning in Austin would be a tier 1 win. 

Big Sky

Montana (108 in NET, 15-6 record). Would give us a decent win, but not sure it moves the needle. Montana probably doesn't want to fly this far as they'd have to fly all day and tickets are $400 RT as we speak. We would probably slaughter them after all that travel. 

Big South

Winthrop (166 in NET, 14-8 record). They won't have to fly very far, but they don't help us at all. Hard pass. 

CUSA

The entire league is off that week. Utterly bizarre. ODU is their top team and ranked 89 in the NET, so it would be a good win at home. North texas is 112 in the NET. I wouldn't consider scheduling anyone else from CUSA. We already beat FIU. 

Colonial

Delaware (228 in NET, 14-10 record). In other words, hard pass. 

MAC

They are fully scheduled out and Buffalo is playing on Tuesday and Friday that week. Answering only because you asked about Buffalo. 

Southern

Wofford (28 in NET, 19-4 record). Can we beat these guys? I think it's possible. They'd really boost our resume. They're off that week. 

Southland

Abilene Christian (161 NET, 18-4 record). Certainly a win, but doesn't really move the needle. 

WAC

New Mexico State (61 NET, 18-4 record). They are completely off that week and would have plenty of time to recover from that travel. I suspect they would probably want this game as well to boost their seeding hopes for the NCAA tournament (because it's likely a resume builder for them and they would want to offset a bad loss to California Baptist). 

If I had to rank my top 5 on scheduling from this group
 

1. Liberty-winnable game, the scheduling will work well as they can hop on a fast flight to Jacksonville after the game. 

2. New Mexico State-moves the needle, good schedule timing for them so they would be willing to come here

3. Old Dominion-good home win, will probably be willing to come here and get out of the cold weather for a bit. 

4. Wofford-Would be a tough team to beat, they did have a game against Stanford postponed so they're willing to travel if it benefits them. They do have to go on the road to Furman three days later, but it's a 50 minute drive-not exactly a long trip. 

5. Miami-their ACC arrogance would probably lead them to insist the game is played in Miami, and they are basically "ok" this year, yet it would be a good win in Tampa or Miami. They have had a decent reputation in the ACC the past few years so it would turn heads from a program building standpoint. 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the breakdown. I think the Big 12 teams are off the table. None of them would risk injury or fatigue to pick up a middling non-conference win at this point. I would say that other than Wofford, Liberty, NMSU, or ODU none of these games would make sense/help us enough in the long run. Miami is not good at all and would do nothing to help our at-large hopes for any tournament. We need a win over a team likely to finish in the NET top 50. However, if I am those teams and USF is reaching out to me to play, I am making USF come to me. We lost Charlotte, which was scheduled to be a road game. Also, a top 50 NET road win would carry a lot more cache than the same win scheduled on short notice at home. 

[bullsbucsfan426]

1 minute ago, BullyPulpit said:

Thank you for the breakdown. I think the Big 12 teams are off the table. None of them would risk injury or fatigue to pick up a middling non-conference win at this point. I would say that other than Wofford, Liberty, NMSU, or ODU none of these games would make sense/help us enough in the long run. Miami is not good at all and would do nothing to help our at-large hopes for any tournament. We need a win over a team likely to finish in the NET top 50. However, if I am those teams and USF is reaching out to me to play, I am making USF come to me. We lost Charlotte, which was scheduled to be a road game. Also, a top 50 NET road win would carry a lot more cache than the same win scheduled on short notice at home. 

I think Liberty, Wofford, or NMSU would be good wins home or away, but if we're traveling, then my choice is Liberty or ODU. Beating a top 100 NET team on the road will be a strong boost to our resume for the NIT or NCAA, and beating Liberty probably pushes us close to the top 60 if not into the top 60. You saw what beating a top 60 team did for us at home. As far as Liberty goes, they have two games left in the regular season with winning records-at Lipscomb and at NJIT. Lipscomb is ranked 32 and NJIT is ranked 165. They are going to want their chance at a strong top 75 win to protect their chances of getting to the tournament. USF is now a tier 1 game for road teams, so they may not mind coming here. On the flip side we would be a tier 2 win for them at their place. 

[79 Bull]

3 hours ago, bullsbucsfan426 said:

They did not say, but here's who has open dates that week and could conceivably help us at least assure an NIT bid: 

I'm a little confused here. Did all those schools have a game cancelled this season?   I don't think you can just add an addtional game to your season.  I can see 2 teams playing who each had a cancellation.

[bullsbucsfan426]

24 minutes ago, 79 Bull said:

I'm a little confused here. Did all those schools have a game cancelled this season?   I don't think you can just add an addtional game to your season.  I can see 2 teams playing who each had a cancellation.

I don't know if any of these schools had a cancellation, but if that's what we're going to argue, then Wofford did have one with Stanford. 

[chapelbull]

Is adding games midseason really a thing?   There's a lot that goes into making these schedules and setting up travel.   And I don't think we need "help" getting into the NIT if we just take care of our business