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4th and short.


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2 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

it doesn't matter what you think. the math says go for it.

hell I didn't think we were going to win. does that mean I didn't want them to pull out all the stops to try?

So what does the math say were the odds that we get that fourth down, because no other fourth down helps us in that game? 

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4 minutes ago, Bull94 said:

quote from your article.

The data suggests it does do what it's designed to do: It puts fielders where the ball most often goes and turns more ground balls and line drives into outs. There are different ways to measure this, and different questions one must resolve to do so, but this has been a pretty consistent finding:

You quoted part of the intro, I quoted part of the conclusion after my quote, it goes on to say,

Even though the shift is good at gobbling up ground balls and line drives, it has the secondary effect of making pitchers throw more pitches out of the strike zone. They don't appear to be pitching to the shift -- by throwing more pitches on the inner part of the plate, for instance -- but merely pitching away from contact, nibbling more and throwing fewer fastballs. This all means more balls. More balls mean more walks, and they also mean more hitter's counts, which means more doubles, more triples, more home runs and fewer strikeouts. 

"By focusing on BABIP, we missed the fact that the battle was already lost. The extra ball means that the count could have been 1-2, but instead it was 2-1." 

Edited by BrassBulls12
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3 minutes ago, BrassBulls12 said:

You quoted part of the intro, I quoted part of the conclusion 

again the shift isn't causing more runs. launch angles and the fact that more guys are swinging for the fences instead of trying to put balls in play are causing more runs. same as it's causing more strikeouts.

not sure why this even matters. fact is strong should have gone for it there. analytics agree. he certainly doesn't have brass bulls.

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1 minute ago, BrassBulls12 said:

 

 

I wonder if he has an agenda considering people are bored with this new version of baseball and he works for a network that shows baseball games exclusively. again I don't care about the shift argument.

strong was wrong in not going for it. give me a coach who pulls out all the stops with trick plays, fake punts, going for it on 4th down, etc when you are playing a rival and are 14 point dogs and are down 14 points in the 4th quarter. you can have the guy that decides to punt.

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Here's what the play exposed and why illicits so much hate..

-We had been stuffed on two 4th and short plays already that tried to just run up the gut.  Once we were in that spot again, everyone in that stadium knew it would be be another similar play.

-Strong recognized that their d line had a great chance to stop our o line if we ran the play that was expected; so to his credit he *didn't* have us run the same play.  +1 to him

-HOWEVER, Strong did not make any adjustment, call for any adjustment from his OC, or do anything else to help put the players in a position to pick up that first down. No trick plays, NOTHING.

We didn't even try to draw them offsides to get it for free.  And pro tip, if u try to draw offsides but don't plan to run a play, you can take the penalty to give ur kicker a better shot at landing before the endzone (if opp team accepts the penalty)...ya know to avoid the touchback that we ended up with; the touchback that ruined Strong's only plan of "back them up on their goal line to make them go conservative again"

-So for that, minus 1000 points to head coach

 

Long story short I was fuming when we punted (and left the game) because it was recognition that the coach had given up and was not prepared for this scenario or the game for that matter.  It doesn't surprise me that the rest of the game went the way it did.  The coaches gave up, so how could the players stay in it?

So it's not a matter of 'well what of he ran a play and failed' to me.  It's bigger than that.

Edited by Ghostbuster
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37 minutes ago, BrassBulls12 said:

So what does the math say were the odds that we get that fourth down, because no other fourth down helps us in that game? 

image.jpeg.08fee300385dd1f9dfebf4d014c0f9b7.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, TheUpperHand said:

image.jpeg.08fee300385dd1f9dfebf4d014c0f9b7.jpeg

funny that's about right. for the season we were 10 for 17 59%

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1 hour ago, BrassBulls12 said:

Charlie strong doesn't call plays, all defensive minded HC stay out of play calling. Even the great Nick Saban. You see him yell at OC's after the fact but never doesn't he come over the head set and say let's run this. They make clock management decisions based on what they have seen. So again, how much confidence did anyone have in our offense getting that yard based on what they had seen? You can't live in theory at thats moment. 

It was clear the way the momentum was headed at that moment so you have to go for it.   UCF was more than likely going to score one way or another when they got the ball next so it's best to at least try to put a score of your own it minimize the damage or maybe picking up that first down and getting a TD could energize your team.  Maybe that gives the defense just enough energy to get a stop or a turnover.  Maybe not but now we will never know....  That was our last chance to get back into the game and CCS said "Thanks but no thanks".   The math said to do it as well but going for it even makes sense for the "ADVANCED METRICS AND FOOTBALL MATH IS FOR NERDS" type as well.  I don't remember the announcers bringing up the math but they were a bit dumbfounded as well.

As Herm Edwards once said....

 

Edited by Bull Dozer
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Not sure why you would expect anything different when CSS ended the first half like this, with three timeouts, down two touchdowns and UCF receiving the second half kickoff.  

USF at 00:21
TOTAL 1 plays , -1 yards Time of Possession: 0:21
1st and 10 at USF37 USF drive start at 00:21.
1st and 10 at USF37 Timeout USF, clock 00:21.
1st and 10 at USF37 TEAM rush for loss of 1 yard to the USF36.
2nd and 11 at USF36 End of half, clock 00:00.

 

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