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  • Men's Basketball
    Great Season Bulls!
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    Sun 3/24, 7:30 pm ESPNU

     
      1 2 Final  
    VCU 32 38 70  
    Bulls 30 35 65  
    📻 Listen 📊 Live Stats 📺 ESPNU  
    Prediction Contest - In Game Thread 
    Last:  Romped over UCF 83-77
     
     

Percentages Graph For Rest Of Year


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1 hour ago, Triple B said:

 

I guess it depends on your perspective. I'd prefer to hang around with Cali, with his realistic approach, than a bunch of the Debbie Downer Nostradamus's we have around right now ...

That's why we're brothers 

 

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6 hours ago, Azmodi said:

So they did fix it. I thought it looked off. 

image.thumb.png.eef7c859c811c8e2c349af45aadf9977.png

corrected version...seems like it got worse for us somehow.

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7 minutes ago, MikeG said:

image.thumb.png.eef7c859c811c8e2c349af45aadf9977.png

corrected version...seems like it got worse for us somehow.

Yeah our SP+ ranking dropped. 

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not that this chart matters much but the UConn game won't make much of a dent to these numbers (well unless we lose). But a win against Houston would be HUGE to this chart. All the games down the stretch are crucial.

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1 minute ago, MikeG said:

not that this chart matters much but the UConn game won't make much of a dent to these numbers (well unless we lose). But a win against Houston would be HUGE to this chart. All the games down the stretch are crucial.

#novemberstartsinH-Town

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Here is a great breakdown on how S&P+ is calculated and how it is used as a predictive tool. Our S&P+ is not as high as it probably should be because of how we have played and who we have played against. However, there is potential bias built into the formula, as the preseason rankings are based upon factors beyond the teams' play (recent success, recruiting success, etc.). However, the bias should be completely phased out after game 7, as there is enough data to rely upon actual performance. 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings 

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I'll take our 2% chance to remain undefeated the whole season. Better than the 0% chance that 121 out of the 129 FBS teams have right now. Go bulls! 🤘

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I mean, it's not a stretch to say this team is probably going to end up with 9 or 10 wins. I think most have been saying that since June.

That being said as an analyst this is a great visual representation of probability of outcomes. 

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2 hours ago, BullyPulpit said:

Here is a great breakdown on how S&P+ is calculated and how it is used as a predictive tool. Our S&P+ is not as high as it probably should be because of how we have played and who we have played against. However, there is potential bias built into the formula, as the preseason rankings are based upon factors beyond the teams' play (recent success, recruiting success, etc.). However, the bias should be completely phased out after game 7, as there is enough data to rely upon actual performance. 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings 

So what is the macro percentage that this tool is correct with all schools at the end of the year?  I would like to know how accurate it is statistically as indicator of wins/loses. 

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20 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

So what is the macro percentage that this tool is correct with all schools at the end of the year?  I would like to know how accurate it is statistically as indicator of wins/loses. 

I couldn't find the data on total wins and losses. This is as much a predictive tool for trying to beat the Vegas spread. As far as that goes, it is only about 54%, which isn't great. I would imagine that few gamblers would rely exclusively on S&P+ in making their wagers. 

I was able to find a breakdown of the week 6 games with the outcome and S&P+ predicted winner. Straight-up, S&P+ went 43-7 in selecting the winning team, so it was 86% accurate in predicting just the actual winner of the game. 

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