Cincy 3 Point Favorite over USF

[Guest]

Correct. But most sports books would say that the people they hire's job is to read the casual/common better's minds and where the money will fall based on a particular line set.

They are predicting.... how people will bet... which means they are predicting predictions.

[JTrue]

They are predicting.... how people will bet... which means they are predicting predictions.

Correct. They are not predicting outcomes.

[raptorcj]

Unless the sportscasters are the ones declaring a Cincy win by 3, they are simply commenting on whether or not USF is going to cover the odds makers betting line. Once again for the cheap seats... when a line is set, it is a betting line. It is determined based on what the odds makers believe is the appropriate line to garner equal amounts of action on both sides. When the line moves, it isn't because they've had a change of heart and believe USF is going to do better or worse. It is entirely dependent on how much action is being wagered. If more people are betting on USF, then the line moves to get more money on Cincy. Odds makers want equal money on both teams so they come out on top.

You can explain what you want to explain without being douchy, JTrue. Fact is, very often people/sports media discuss what the odds-makers predict, and roll with their own predictions from there. And then odds-makers often adjust the line based on those resulting predictions, because they know it will influence betting. Because the line moves with opinion and analysis, it serves to be as much a predicting measure for the common fan as a sports writer's educated opinion--either can be equally wrong.

[Sellular1]

Looks like the odds makers in Vegas got spanked last nite.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2015/11/15/ronda-rousey-holly-holm-las-vegas-sports-books-bets/75822360/

[Paisa el Toro]

Whether the line is a prediction of a prediction or a prediction of outcome will destroy us!!!!!!!!!

[JTrue]

You can explain what you want to explain without being douchy, JTrue. Fact is, very often people/sports media discuss what the odds-makers predict, and roll with their own predictions from there. And then odds-makers often adjust the line based on those resulting predictions, because they know it will influence betting. Because the line moves with opinion and analysis, it serves to be as much a predicting measure for the common fan as a sports writer's educated opinion--either can be equally wrong.

Years ago, I had a friend who was one of a handful of people who worked part time as a NASCAR odds maker for some of the casinos in Vegas. Essentially, what he did each week was to do an insane amount of research and then lay out an entire prediction for the weekend's race. After coming up with his order of finish 1-43, he then started pouring over the raw numbers of who the public was betting on each week. Using a combination of the two, he toyed with the odds in order to predict what would pull the most action on both sides and what would happen if each racer won, the payout for the victory, and the amount the casino would take on the other 42 drivers. He explained that if he EVER gave Jeff Gordon the actual odds of winning a race, he'd lose his job in a heartbeat. The sheer number of people who bet on him to win each week made it impossible to give him realistic odds without busting the sports book. He explained that it was the same principal that kept Vegas from giving the Chicago Cubs (I'm a Cub fan, so it was his example) an actual honest prediction. Year in and year out, the Cubs odds never matched their actual potential because of the national popularity. How this relates to football is similar. Yes, you do take into account who you think is going to win, but the line isn't a prediction of that outcome. An oddsmaker might be looking at Cincy and USF this weekend and think USF is going to win. Of course he's going to factor that into his line, but only as it relates to what everyone else is thinking about the game and how that will impact their betting. The simplest proof of all of this is the fact that the line moves. It's not because Vegas thinks USF is getting better or worse. You're mot changing your prediction because you've suddenly become more certain of an outcome as the week progresses. It's all about balancing the money.

[Rocky Style]

For some reason I felt better about the Temple game than I feel about the Cincy game. I always liked our chances against Temple but Cincy can put up points.

I am hoping we aren't looking ahead on this one...