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EAST champion scenarios:

UCF eliminated
ECU eliminated

If Temple beats USF, they clinch, and so for the sake of the following discussion we assume USF beats Temple.

The easiest path for us would be to beat UC and UCF plus one more Temple loss to either Memphis or UConn.

If we beat UC but lose to UCF: UC eliminated. UConn eliminated. We would need Temple to lose to both Memphis and UConn.

If we lose to UC but beat UCF: UConn eliminated. We would need Temple to lose to both Memphis and UConn as well as UC to lose to either Tulsa or ECU, because:

If USF/Temple/UC all go 5-3, with head-to-head 1-1 splits, the tie-breaker goes to DIVISIONAL record (USF 4-1, UC 4-1, Temple 3-2). Temple eliminated. Then the tie-breaker would go back to head-to-head with UC over USF.

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For UC to win the EAST: UC over Tulsa, USF, and ECU; plus Temple loses to USF, Memphis, and UConn; plus either USF over UCF or UConn over Houston. UC cannot beat Temple in a 2-way tie (h2h loss). They need a 3-way or 4-way tie with USF and/or UConn at 5-3.

UConn is shortest on tie-breakers. To represent the EAST: UConn beats Houston and Temple; plus Temple loses to USF and Memphis; plus USF loses to UC and UCF; plus UC loses to either Tulsa or ECU. Poor Huskies.

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USF beats Temple, Cincy beats Tulsa. All four teams that were alive last week for the Eastern Division remain so. Our clinching scenarios:

1) Win 2 (UC/UCF) + Temple loses 1 (to Mem or UConn)

OR

2) Beat only UC + Temple loses 2

OR

3) Beat only UCF + Temple loses 2 + UC loses to ECU

UConn remains alive, but needs 2 wins, 2 USF losses, a loss by Temple to Mem, & a loss by UC to ECU. However, they can't directly hurt us as their only scenarios requires two USF losses and so we'd be out anyway.

UC can still hurt us. If they win out, we're eliminated. To clinch, they need 2 wins, 2 losses by Temple, and either USF over UCF or UConn over Houston to force a three or four way tie with Temple at 5-3.

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In the West, Memphis' loss to Houston eliminated them. It will come down to the Houston-Navy game, winner-take-all. Their other remaining game won't factor into determining the Western Division champ. It may matter for ranking and bowl access though.

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Here's another way to look at it. If during this upcoming weekend:

USF wins + Temple loses: we need USF win OR Temple loss the following week.

USF wins + Temple wins: we need USF win AND Temple loss the following week.

USF loses + Temple loses: we need USF win AND Temple loss AND Cincy loss the following week.

USF loses + Temple wins: we are eliminated and Temple clinches the East.

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This is a very realistic possibility. Memphis can beat Temple and we can beat Cincy. Beating Cincy is only possible if the team stays focused... Then I feel like magically Temple will lose to Memphis for us.

 

 

 

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