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No more QBR talk ............... Ever!


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QBR, like all statistics, have their place. However, they also have limitations. No one who saw the game yesterday would think QF played poorly at all, and yes he missed a couple open receivers.

For comparison SMU backup had a QBR of 94 so we can take it with a grain of salt. 

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http://espn.go.com/ncf/qbr/_/type/player-week/page/3

103 Quinton Flowers, USF W 38-14 vs SMU -0.7 0.7 -0.9 -0.0 -0.9 46 31.8 14.2
                   

Haven't you give others crap for over reactions ? ^_^ I would agree though that this is a good example where QBR has failed to pick up QF contributions to the win yesterday, particularly for rushing. QBR is far from perfect but better than any other objective QB metric for measuring QB performance vs wins. I would love for ESPN to make the process a transparent because I want to know why they weighted QF 201 yrs 8.7 yrds/carry and 3 TD into Run EPA (Expected Points Added)  as 0.7? In comparison D Watson for Clemson rushed for 91 yrds 12.3 avg and 1 TD and received a 3.9??

As far as the total QBR being adjusted from 31.8 to 14.2 for SMU, SMU is not a good defensive team and the average pts given up by their D against FBS teams is 52.5 pts. So 38 pts while great for us is quite a bit lower than there average points surrendered. 

2015 FBS (I-A) Leaders

RK PLAYER RESULT PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
                     
103 Quinton Flowers, USF W 38-14 vs SMU -0.7 0.7 -0.9 -0.0 -0.9 46 31.8 14.2

 

 

But as a QB, QF statistically had a bad day b/c of the receivers and its understandable that his number as a  QB were drastically affected. So while we know and feel QF played his best game of the season by far, statistically it doesn't show. His passer rating was 85.7, he throw for 0 TDs and went 9 for 20. It would appear that the QBR weighs passing from a QB more heavily than rushing stats. 

DATE OPP RESULT   CMP ATT YDS CMP% LNG TD INT RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD RAW QBR ADJ QBR
9/5 Florida A&M W 51-3 12 16 141 75.0 45 2 1 177.8 7 63 9.0 29 1 82.6 59.7
9/12 @Florida State L 34-14 12 24 125 50.0 71 2 1 112.9 14 38 2.7 23 0 8.7 16.1
9/19 @Maryland L 35-17 10 19 60 52.6 28 1 1 86.0 24 85 3.5 26 1 30.4 30.5
10/2 Memphis L 24-17 17 26 199 65.4 39 1 1 134.7 8 23 2.9 11 0 41.8 41.0
10/10 Syracuse W 45-24 15 22 259 68.2 56 2 0 197.1 15 55 3.7 17 1 72.3 71.6
10/17 @Connecticut W 28-20 11 15 157 73.3 44 2 2 178.6 15 98 6.5 33 1 66.7 61.4
10/24 SMU W 38-14 9 20 97 45.0 38 0 0 85.7 23 201 8.7 71 3 31.8 14.2

 

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QBR, like all statistics, have their place. However, they also have limitations. No one who saw the game yesterday would think QF played poorly at all, and yes he missed a couple open receivers.

For comparison SMU backup had a QBR of 94 so we can take it with a grain of salt. 

Yeah I don't like how a QB that does well in garbage time gets so much credit but I guess that hard to account for. But looking at his traditional numbers its easy to see why

2015 GAME LOGPASSINGRUSHINGQBR
DATEOPPRESULT  CMPATTYDSCMP%LNGTDINTRATATTYDSAVGLNGTDRAW QBRADJ QBR
9/4BaylorL 56-210100.00000.0294.5604.56.1
9/12North TexasW 31-130000.00000.0133.03085.863.9
9/19@TCUL 56-370000.00000.0263.04025.234.0
9/26James MadisonL 48-45No statistics available.
10/3East CarolinaL 49-23No statistics available.
10/8@HoustonL 49-28No statistics available.
10/24@South FloridaL 38-14111312084.63710187.58394.911092.894.4

 

It looks like QBR does weigh passing heavily though. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing.

Edited by Bull-Hornz
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As far as the total QBR being adjusted from 31.8 to 14.2 for SMU, SMU is not a good defensive team and the average pts given up by their D against FBS teams is 52.5 pts. So 38 pts while great for us is quite a bit lower than there average points surrendered.                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  
                  

And 2 of those FBS teams were top 5 when they played them and another was 7-0 Houston. Like Sanjay said, the rating may have it's place somewhere but it's definitely flawed in places and holding all type qb's/games to it doesn't appear to work ...... and is there somewhere in all those numbers that take into consideration perfect passes thrown by a qb that are dropped?

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