That is a tough one to play out, since it eliminates 12 years of history, 4 head coaches, multiple recruiting philosophies and various game strategies
We definitely still wind-up in the AAC, though the seasons play-out drastically different with Leavitt at the helm
2010 is probably the same end result and we do not see as bad a slide in 2011. We have winning records in 2012 - 2015, maybe even winning a conference championship, since Leavitt was always good against weaker foes.
The three headed monster in Flowers/Mack/Adams never happens, because Leavitt was primarily a defensive coach and may not have landed all of them. My guess is that we do not beat UCF in 2017, so their timeline continues unchecked.
Best case scenario is that the Big12 takes both USF & UCF based on continual USF success over the years - there is also a good chance in this scenario that we are still in the AAC, since I do not think a Leavitt coached team would have beat UCF in 2017