Here is why we are unlikely to host even if we beat UCF and Memphis wins out. We would likely either fall into #1 with Memphis being ranked and us not. Or #2 with both of us ranked but Memphis being higher. Remember these are the rankings from the week before the UCF game not after. The best shot for Memphis to lose is SMU. Lets go Mustangs!
Host Team selection criteria:
If only one division champion is ranked entering the final week of conference play, it will host if it wins in that week. If that team loses, a composite of four computer rankings is used to determine the host.
If both division champions are ranked, the higher-ranked team that won in the final week will host. If, in this scenario, neither wins in the final week, the same computer ranking system is used.
If neither division champion is ranked, the aforementioned computer rankings are used.
If neither CFP nor computer rankings determine a host, the teams' records against common conference opponents are used.
If still tied, overall record determines the host.
Finally, a coin toss is held at the conference offices.