BullyPulpit

It's plenty of love given the body of work thus far. There isn't a single team ranked ahead of us that doesn't have a better overall resume on the season.

USF #24 in AP as well.

BYU will jump us and we will jump Florida. I think we may jump Dayton as well. Hoping for #24.

About 340 tickets left now that whatever error was corrected by USF. Still, that's pretty **** impressive.

I still think we have to lose in the conference finals to have a realistic shot at an at-large. Even then, it will be 50/50. If we lose in the semis we are looking at a 10% chance of getting an at-large. We can't lose in the quarters.

Not my style but at least they tried.

I said when, not of.

Charlotte is 11-1 at home on the season with the only loss coming back on November 29 against Davidson by 4. All of their 4 AAC losses have come on the road. I am truly worried about this game. Kiss an at-large possibility goodbye with a loss. I expect this game to be decided by 3 points either way. I should add that Charlotte is even more rested than USF, having last played on Saturday the 24th.

Looking at the numbers, I am thinking USF is going to be a 1.5 point underdog. ESPN's BPI only gives us a 37.1% chance of winning. That usually translates into a slightly higher spread but with USF being ranked and getting attention this week, I think the spread will come out lower on this one. Warren Nolan has us predicted to lose by 1, FWIW.

That's correct. The caveat I was giving was for prior to the SMU game. I was tired when I responded to you.

We did with the SMU victory. That gave us a 4 game lead on SMU and guaranteed no worse than a 4th place finish as SMU plays UAB in the final game of the season. It was impossible for USF not to finish top 4.

We wouldn't be ranked where we are in the NET if we had beaten up on our soft OOC schedule. I agree, it is a bad ranking system and I truly believe the Big 12 is going to get exposed in the NCAAT (with the exception of Houston), but USF's ranking is where it is because of 2 or 3 bad losses early in the season. We need the committee to help us overcome it and, hopefully, articles like the athletic and the Clemson coach railing against the system will help.

Not just the driver but the calming force on the court. The way everyone has fallen into and embraced their roles is exceptional and something you see in very few teams. Youngblood is the leader, Pryor is the energy, Miguel is the spark, Walker, Jr. is the fighter, Placer and Reid are the 1-2 punch, Stroud is the grinder, Knox is the wingman, and Hines is the role player.

There is no perfect measure to rank the teams which is why they shouldn't rely upon just one. NET says we are the 84th best team in the nation. ELO Chess says that we are the 29th best team. Which one is right? I don't know!

Lunardi's latest bracketology has us up to a #11 seed. This draw would actually be a dream scenario and why we don't want to get an 8 or 9 seed. The Sweet 16 and even the Elite 8 would be a real possibility. I just don't see how USF could stop a team like UCONN with Clingan or Purdue with Edey, so we definitely want to avoid them. NCAA Bracketology: 2024 March Madness men's field predictions WWW.ESPN.COM We could make a legitimate case for any of them -- while at the same time reminding everyone this may be a distinction without a difference this March.

You don't really want that. This is a resume that requires looking beyond the metrics. This is a team that needs to have the committee go off-script in order to get consideration. The early season losses have to be given less weight by the committee than they are given by the computers.

ESPN is starting to buy into the possibility of USF making it as an at-large. Of course, it will take what most of us have been saying all along and that is the Bulls win out and lose to a good team in the conference tourney, most likely requiring that loss to be in the finals. This is the type of positive press that puts the idea into the universe and hopefully gains some traction. Understand that a mid major like USF making it to the tournament with its current metrics would be fairly unprecedented. The closest example was a Rutgers team, but they played in a major conference. This week, South Florida broke into the men's AP Top 25. With good reason. Anyone who watched the Bulls defeat Florida Atlantic and SMU on consecutive Sundays knows USF is playing like a top-25 team. Amir Abdur-Rahim's team has won 13 straight. At 21-5 and 14-1 in American play, the Bulls have already clinched at least a share of the conference's regular-season title. Yet South Florida is nowhere to be found here at Bubble Watch. How can this be? On the measures the NCAA men's basketball committee uses to select the field, the Bulls are not yet at the same level as bubble teams. Then again, the margin between South Florida and the bubble has been shrinking for weeks. The strongest portions of USF's profile are its résumé metrics. NCAA-approved rankings such as strength of record and KPI both show the Bulls in the 60s or even in the 50s, depending on the day. These aren't stellar rankings, perhaps, but, for a team that suffered early-season losses at home to Maine and Central Michigan, they're impressive nonetheless. Conversely, South Florida is less competitive with bubble rivals in measures of team strength. Earlier this month, Bubble Watch chronicled the daunting selection odds traditionally faced by teams below the mid-50s in the NET rankings. The Bulls are in the 80s in the NET and in the 90s at KenPom. Still, Rutgers wrangled an at-large bid from the committee in 2022 despite a NET ranking of 77. If South Florida keeps winning, it can at least equal the Scarlet Knights on this criterion. Since the start of February, the Bulls have already raised their NET ranking by more than 30 spots. By "keep winning," by the way, Bubble Watch recommends USF keep doing so all the way to the finals of the American tournament. On this subject, Abdur-Rahim might consider texting either Utah coach Craig Smith or VCU coach Ryan Odom for advice. Smith and Odom were the head coaches at Utah State in the 2021 and 2023 tournaments, respectively. In both years, the Aggies stormed into March on win streaks that carried them all the way to the Mountain West tournament final. In both years, USU lost in the conference tournament final to San Diego State. Nevertheless, the Aggies earned double-digit seeds in both brackets. That's the kind of run that South Florida is on now. That's the kind of run the Bulls will need to extend to earn an at-large bid. Or, who knows, USF might just take the committee out of this question entirely and win the automatic bid. Either way, at 13 wins in a row and counting, South Florida is fast approaching bubble status.

The problem is that I don't see us getting to a 6 or 7 seed even if we win out. I think it would be an 8 or a 9 and, in that case, I would rather be a 10, 11, or 12 seed. There is a clear delineation between the potential #1 seeds and the rest of the field. I like our chances of being an 10 seed and beating a 7 seed and then a 2 seed. A potential #2 like UNC is very beatable. Obviously, beggars can't be choosers, but I just hope we don't get stuck with an 8 or 9 seed.

What he did at his previous stop was pretty exceptional as well. He showed progress every season. P5s wouldn't be calling if this was year 1 of his head coaching career. They would have taken a wait and see approach. He has now improved two programs, one low major and one mid major. The next logical step is for him to turnaround a major program. Keep in mind he was taking just as big of a risk as the University by agreeing to be the HC here, if not bigger.

9 AP voters have us in their top 20, including JB Ricks of Spectrum News Raleigh-Durham who has us at a high water mark of #15. 32 of the 62 voters left us out of the top 25 completely. By comparison, Florida's highest ranking is #18 and they also have 9 top 20 votes, but they were only left off of 24 ballots.

# 25 in the AP poll as well!

Based upon where we were ranked in the AP, I think we will come up just short around 26 or 27. Still, first time ranked in USF history. From RANK to RANKED!

While it may feel nice to clean up the loss, there is no real value in beating UAB. A better road would be beating some combination of Memphis and SMU along the way before falling in the conference finals to FAU. Remember, neutral court NET top 50 wins count as Q1 and 51-100 count as Q2. USF could foreseeably get to 2 or 3 Q1 wins with a loss in the AAC finals.