I appreciate the thoughtful response, I’m afraid there’s just too much wishful thinking to come to the conclusions you have though.
You don’t know the acc will earn more than the Big12 over the next decade. The Big 12 currently gets more and they will be able to go to market (again) by the time the supposed inflection point is reached where the ACC was scheduled to earn more.”; this isn’t ’in ‘32-33’’, they will be back in negotiations in 2029-30. The Big 12 has shown the ability to secure a lucrative deal in tough economic times already, something only two other conferences have done. Further, they have put multiple schools into the playoff since they negotiated that deal which not only gives them even more money ‘than scheduled’ but also gives them credibility to the tv partners for another raise they most assuredly will get. Let’s not forget that since you brought up the acc ‘growing revenue’ by adding the dregs of two zombie conferences that the Big 12 actually added viably positive revenue generators in new markets as well, far more so than the acc did. Let’s now tackle the elephant in the room: basketball. They’ve already cemented themselves as the runaway best conference there and are looking to break off into its own package deal, they’re already playing in Mexico. They are going to get paid. They’re probably going to be playing international exhibitions and getting paid for it. They are so much more forward thinking that it’s borderline irresponsible to assume the acc will be better off. Multiple schools in the acc will want that action beyond those that join the sec/big 10.
I concede your point the GOR may not open as easily with the three new additions. I’m not sure that’ll matter in another 7ish years though. I’m certainly not confident like you are.