This Game Has Me Worried

[BullyPulpit]

I'm far from a chicken-little and consider myself to be a pretty level-headed fan. With that being said, this game worries me. Not because Tulane is a world-beater. Not because we aren't a good team overall. But rather for the following reasons:

1. We are not "battle-tested" while Tulane is (at least more so than us) - With the exception of Grambling and FIU, every other opponent that Tulane has faced is tougher than all 6 of the opponents we have faced. They played Navy extremely close on the road, and they won all 3 home games thus far. Yes, Oklahoma curb stomped them, but that game was tied 14-14 after the first and was a relatively close 28-14 at halftime. Our paper-thin, kid-tested, mother approved, Charmin soft schedule thus far hasn't really prepared us for any sort of a fight. While I have faith in QF and Co., at some point we are going to get punched in the mouth by a team with a pulse. I want to see how we respond with this new coaching staff. 

2. Terrible speed off the line 0-30 - With the exception of the ECU game, we have looked sluggish and ill-prepared in the first half. Eventually, our talent and athleticism has led to us wearing down our opponents and making the big plays when needed, but the offensive play calling and coaching doesn't seem to be the difference. It isn't like we are making exceptional halftime adjustments, we just have better players than our competition to date. While Tulane might be mediocre, they are statistically the best team we will have faced to date. We need the coaches to step up and make the most of the talent advantage that we have. If this game is tied or within 1 score at the half, my angst will be at first quarter SJSU levels. 

3. Yellow hankies - We have let too many of our terrible opponents off the hook with sloppy play. I don't mind the occasional "aggression" penalty, but on the road against a step-up in competition is not the time to get sloppy. While I know there isn't a strong correlation between penalties and wins/losses, we are the MOST penalized team in the nation and, in a close game, that could be the difference maker. (Tulane averages half the penalties, 5 pg and half the penalty yards, 45 ypg, that we do). 

4. Target on our backs - Tulane hasn't defeated a ranked team in 50 years. 1967, fresh off the Summer of Love, Lyndon B. Johnson was President, the average cost of a new home was $14,500, and Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band was released. This is going to be a BIG game for the Green Wave. While they may only have 25,000 or so in attendance, the stadium only seats 30,000, so the crowd will seem bigger and more raucous than usual. 

5. "Dead Zone" Offense - In 39 red zone trips this season USF has mustered just 21 touchdowns (53.84%), hitting a season low against a very poor Cincy team. Tulane's red zone defense has been atrocious. If we can't consistently finish touchdown drives on them, can we finish on anyone left on our schedule? 

6. Defense Stays In Its Lane - Tulane's spread, shotgun triple option can present a whole slew of problems for defenses that can't play good assignment football. We need to see excellent tackling and players need to stay in their lane, figuratively and literally. A triple option will wear you down if you have guys trying to be the hero or failing to hold their own assignment. Last year's Navy game was way closer than it should have been. This year's defense is improved, but has shown moments of weakness and lapses in assignments. 

7. Any Given Saturday - If you had Syracuse over Clemson, Iowa State over Oklahoma, or Cal over Washington State, please raise your hand? Anyone??? Every good/great team seems to have one or two letdown games each season. Were Stony Brook and SJSU ours? Was Cincy last week? How can we really know if we had a letdown when we haven't played an opponent of substance yet? I hope to see a team come out of the gates poised and hungry, clicking on all cylinders. If I can see that just once this season on both sides of the ball, maybe I will become a little more confident in this team's chances to run the table. 

With all that being said, I still think USF wins this game. I think we will slog our way to a 34-27 win. Sure, the 30 point streak stays intact, the longest winning streak in the nation continues, but how confident do we feel about our last 4 games? I pray I am wrong. 

Edited October 20, 2017 by BullyPulpit

[BullyPulpit]

I should clarify that Tulane hasn't beaten a ranked opponent at home in 50 years. They did beat Vandy on the road in 1984. 

[Bear]

This is good; finally a real test.

 

Tulane is energetic to host a ranked team this week!

[BullyPulpit]

3 minutes ago, Bear said:

This is good; finally a real test.

 

Tulane is energetic to host a ranked team this week!

They are doing a Buy One, Get One free ticket promotion so I am projecting the attendance to be around 25,000 (depending on the weather). 
 

A BOGO promotion is what we should be doing as well. That, or offer the rest of this season free if you are a new season ticket holder and commit to next season. 

[Thebullsfan]

11 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

They are doing a Buy One, Get One free ticket promotion so I am projecting the attendance to be around 25,000 (depending on the weather). 
 

A BOGO promotion is what we should be doing as well. That, or offer the rest of this season free if you are a new season ticket holder and commit to next season. 

we might sell out Ray Jay if we did that.

 

[USFBulls727]

They just lost to FIU. However, they blew out Tulsa, who blew out Houston. You never know.

Edited October 20, 2017 by USFBulls727

[footnfan1]

Tulane is not  areal test for USF. USF by 21.

Edited October 20, 2017 by footnfan1

[NewEnglandBull]

56 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I'm far from a chicken-little and consider myself to be a pretty level-headed fan. With that being said, this game worries me. Not because Tulane is a world-beater. Not because we aren't a good team overall. But rather for the following reasons:

1. We are not "battle-tested" while Tulane is (at least more so than us) - With the exception of Grambling and FIU, every other opponent that Tulane has faced is tougher than all 6 of the opponents we have faced. They played Navy extremely close on the road, and they won all 3 home games thus far. Yes, Oklahoma curb stomped them, but that game was tied 14-14 after the first and was a relatively close 28-14 at halftime. Our paper-thin, kid-tested, mother approved, Charmin soft schedule thus far hasn't really prepared us for any sort of a fight. While I have faith in QF and Co., at some point we are going to get punched in the mouth by a team with a pulse. I want to see how we respond with this new coaching staff. 

2. Terrible speed off the line 0-30 - With the exception of the ECU game, we have looked sluggish and ill-prepared in the first half. Eventually, our talent and athleticism has led to us wearing down our opponents and making the big plays when needed, but the offensive play calling and coaching doesn't seem to be the difference. It isn't like we are making exceptional halftime adjustments, we just have better players than our competition to date. While Tulane might be mediocre, they are statistically the best team we will have faced to date. We need the coaches to step up and make the most of the talent advantage that we have. If this game is tied or within 1 score at the half, my angst will be at first quarter SJSU levels. 

3. Yellow hankies - We have let too many of our terrible opponents off the hook with sloppy play. I don't mind the occasional "aggression" penalty, but on the road against a step-up in competition is not the time to get sloppy. While I know there isn't a strong correlation between penalties and wins/losses, we are the MOST penalized team in the nation and, in a close game, that could be the difference maker. (Tulane averages half the penalties, 5 pg and half the penalty yards, 45 ypg, that we do). 

4. Target on our backs - Tulane hasn't defeated a ranked team in 50 years. 1967, fresh off the Summer of Love, Lyndon B. Johnson was President, the average cost of a new home was $14,500, and Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band was released. This is going to be a BIG game for the Green Wave. While they may only have 25,000 or so in attendance, the stadium only seats 30,000, so the crowd will seem bigger and more raucous than usual. 

5. "Dead Zone" Offense - In 39 red zone trips this season USF has mustered just 21 touchdowns (53.84%), hitting a season low against a very poor Cincy team. Tulane's red zone defense has been atrocious. If we can't consistently finish touchdown drives on them, can we finish on anyone left on our schedule? 

6. Defense Stays In Its Lane - Tulane's spread, shotgun triple option can present a whole slew of problems for defenses that can't play good assignment football. We need to see excellent tackling and players need to stay in their lane, figuratively and literally. A triple option will wear you down if you have guys trying to be the hero or failing to hold their own assignment. Last year's Navy game was way closer than it should have been. This year's defense is improved, but has shown moments of weakness and lapses in assignments. 

7. Any Given Saturday - If you had Syracuse over Clemson, Iowa State over Oklahoma, or Cal over Washington State, please raise your hand? Anyone??? Every good/great team seems to have one or two letdown games each season. Were Stony Brook and SJSU ours? Was Cincy last week? How can we really know if we had a letdown when we haven't played an opponent of substance yet? I hope to see a team come out of the gates poised and hungry, clicking on all cylinders. If I can see that just once this season on both sides of the ball, maybe I will become a little more confident in this team's chances to run the table. 

With all that being said, I still think USF wins this game. I think we will slog our way to a 34-27 win. Sure, the 30 point streak stays intact, the longest winning streak in the nation continues, but how confident do we feel about our last 4 games? I pray I am wrong. 

Good God a “War and Peace” post. Almost every game we get at least a few people worried about this week’s game. I do agree that there is more to worry about with this week than any other we have had, but we will win. Maybe not convincingly (as your points are well taken) but I think we got this. 

[JoeB]

I'm with you Bully.  I have a feeling this will be a frustrating game for our D.  The score will be a close one throughout although I think we leave with a W.  QF will need to make a few plays with his arm over the top, meaning a few long scores.  I'll say 31-23...but a nerve racking watch for us.

[USFBulls727]

1 minute ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Good God a “War and Peace” post. Almost every game we get at least a few people worried about this week’s game. I do agree that there is more to worry about with this week than any other we have had, but we will win. Maybe not convincingly (as your points are well taken) but I think we got this. 

Them losing 23-10 to FIU takes a lot of the fear out of playing Tulane