AAC Baseball Scenario Chat/ USF

[JoeB]

Anyone up for a chat?  Trying to figure things out for tourney time

[JoeB]

Pretty sure that win tonight means we finish no worse than 4th place in the AAC.  Doesn't seem like a big deal, but if I'm reading the standings correctly it means we won't face UConn in the opening round.  This could be pretty huge as their pitcher Tim Cate has owned us and he would go in Game 1.

[NewEnglandBull]

STANDINGS UPDATE: With Houston's loss tonight, we can clinch the regular-season title with a win tomorrow and a UConn loss.

[JoeB]

Just now, NewEnglandBull said:

STANDINGS UPDATE: With Houston's loss tonight, we can clinch the regular-season title with a win tomorrow and a UConn loss.

Yep.  Need UConn to lose.  They play at 3 tomorrow...no lights.  So we'll know by the time we play.

[JoeB]

Also with one more win we finish no worse than second place

[swamprat]

46 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

STANDINGS UPDATE: With Houston's loss tonight, we can clinch the regular-season title with a win tomorrow and a UConn loss.

That would just be way too easy.

[JoeB]

Just now, swamprat said:

That would just be way too easy.

Thats what we're hoping for

[bullsbucsfan426]

Would be nice to sweep and finish the undisputed regular season champion. Of course, had we won just once more at UConn last week this would all be academic. 

Chances at hosting a regional now are super slim, but winning the regular season and conference titles might get it for us. I think that record against RPI 50-100 schools is what's dragging us down the most. 

[Mama_Bull]

1 hour ago, bullsbucsfan426 said:

Would be nice to sweep and finish the undisputed regular season champion. Of course, had we won just once more at UConn last week this would all be academic. 

Chances at hosting a regional now are super slim, but winning the regular season and conference titles might get it for us. I think that record against RPI 50-100 schools is what's dragging us down the most. 

We have a very good record against RPI top 50 teams (9-3).  So, when you add that to  RPI 50-100 (10-8), our total record of 19-11 against RPI top 100 teams is overall good.

IMO, Our biggest drawback for hosting is that we have only won a single series on the road, against Memphis.

So, by taking even one more game at UCF will help some in that regard.

Sweeping UCF will not only win USF the regular season title, but improve our road record to a respectable 11-7 and wins against RPI top 50 teams to an impressive 11-3. Of course, our RPI would improve substantially.

Currently, USF is RPI #19. However, we are only 14 RPI points away from being RPI  #15.

A USF win today is worth 29 RPI points.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/team-impact?team=South-Florida

A USF win tomorrow will be worth about the same.

So, by winning BOTH games it is worth around 58 RPI points. At the moment, Southern Miss, RPI #12 is only 54  points ahead of USF.

I think it is fairly certain that if USF sweeps UCF, our RPI will be #16 or better.

If that happens, I believe our chances are relatively good for hosting. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ionbull]

3 hours ago, Mama_Bull said:

We have a very good record against RPI top 50 teams (9-3).  So, when you add that to  RPI 50-100 (10-8), our total record of 19-11 against RPI top 100 teams is overall good.

IMO, Our biggest drawback for hosting is that we have only won a single series on the road, against Memphis.

So, by taking even one more game at UCF will help some in that regard.

Sweeping UCF will not only win USF the regular season title, but improve our road record to a respectable 11-7 and wins against RPI top 50 teams to an impressive 11-3. Of course, our RPI would improve substantially.

Currently, USF is RPI #19. However, we are only 14 RPI points away from being RPI  #15.

A USF win today is worth 29 RPI points.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/team-impact?team=South-Florida

A USF win tomorrow will be worth about the same.

So, by winning BOTH games it is worth around 58 RPI points. At the moment, Southern Miss, RPI #12 is only 54  points ahead of USF.

I think it is fairly certain that if USF sweeps UCF, our RPI will be #16 or better.

If that happens, I believe our chances are relatively good for hosting. 

 

 

 

 

 

Would love to see Shane go as far tonight as Phoenix did yesterday. This offense has proven as long as they are within striking distance they are never out of it; especially against C. It's kinda crazy how many fluky come from behind victories the bulls have against the kanights. 

Hopefully Peter can continue is insane run of the past few weeks tomorrow, too.