We might prefer NIU to beat Ohio. The most substantial threat to our chances is Toledo (with all other contenders receiving only a smattering of votes at best, which I believe we would overtake by winning out and beating Houston or Navy). A win by NIU eliminates Toledo from the MAC championship game (NIU plays Tuesday, Toledo plays Friday). I say, bury Toledo, and hope NIU beats BGSU in the MAC title game. Another game of interest today would be WKU-FIU. Root for FIU. The cUSA East winner will be the winner of the WKU-Marshall game next week, but a loss today by WKU would wipe away their votes and any gain they might achieve by beating Marshall, as well as cheapening Marshall's victory should they win.
In the West, Memphis' loss to Houston eliminated them. It will come down to the Houston-Navy game, winner-take-all. Their other remaining game won't factor into determining the Western Division champ. It may matter for ranking and bowl access though.
USF beats Temple, Cincy beats Tulsa. All four teams that were alive last week for the Eastern Division remain so. Our clinching scenarios:
1) Win 2 (UC/UCF) + Temple loses 1 (to Mem or UConn)
2) Beat only UC + Temple loses 2
3) Beat only UCF + Temple loses 2 + UC loses to ECU
UConn remains alive, but needs 2 wins, 2 USF losses, a loss by Temple to Mem, & a loss by UC to ECU. However, they can't directly hurt us as their only scenarios requires two USF losses and so we'd be out anyway.
UC can still hurt us. If they win out, we're eliminated. To clinch, they need 2 wins, 2 losses by Temple, and either USF over UCF or UConn over Houston to force a three or four way tie with Temple at 5-3.
For UC to win the EAST: UC over Tulsa, USF, and ECU; plus Temple loses to USF, Memphis, and UConn; plus either USF over UCF or UConn over Houston. UC cannot beat Temple in a 2-way tie (h2h loss). They need a 3-way or 4-way tie with USF and/or UConn at 5-3.
UConn is shortest on tie-breakers. To represent the EAST: UConn beats Houston and Temple; plus Temple loses to USF and Memphis; plus USF loses to UC and UCF; plus UC loses to either Tulsa or ECU. Poor Huskies.
If Temple beats USF, they clinch, and so for the sake of the following discussion we assume USF beats Temple.
The easiest path for us would be to beat UC and UCF plus one more Temple loss to either Memphis or UConn.
If we beat UC but lose to UCF: UC eliminated. UConn eliminated. We would need Temple to lose to both Memphis and UConn.
If we lose to UC but beat UCF: UConn eliminated. We would need Temple to lose to both Memphis and UConn as well as UC to lose to either Tulsa or ECU, because:
If USF/Temple/UC all go 5-3, with head-to-head 1-1 splits, the tie-breaker goes to DIVISIONAL record (USF 4-1, UC 4-1, Temple 3-2). Temple eliminated. Then the tie-breaker would go back to head-to-head with UC over USF.
jfuchs91: Thanks for putting together the visitors guide. I am one of a (likely) very small group representing USF making the trip for the tournament, but have been to Hartford before for several of the womens tournaments. The last time I was here in 2011, if I recall correctly, there was some construction just west of the arena -- perhaps those are for the newer bars and restaurants. Before, it was tough to get a table and a meal between sessions, just with the womens bball crowd. Also, it looks like maybe the St Patricks Day parade might be back on, as I saw a few signs along the highway warning of exit closures this weekend.
Regarding the Tulane coach, Lisa Stockton: in the early 2000s, we beat them in New Orleans when they were ranked, and the radio broadcasters mentioned that she didn't shake CJF's hand after the game. Couldn't find independent confirmation of this, and if I remember correctly, it was the Tulane radio show on the web.
Here's what I have regarding the seeding: With one more round of games (5) this weekend, no seed is yet locked in for the AAC tournament.
1/2: SMU/Tulsa tied. They play each other. Winner is 1, loser is 2.
3/4:Cincy/Temple tied. Cincy holds tie-breaker for 3, so Temple only flips with them with a win and UC loss.
5/6: Memphis/UConn tied. Memphis holds tiebreaker and so UConn gets the 5 and the final bye only with a win and a Memphis loss.
7/8/9: Will be between ECU/Tulane/UCF. UCF is finished with the regular season, but can move from 9 to 8 with a Tulane loss. ECU gets the 7 with a win or Tulane loss. ECU gets the 8 with a loss and a Tulane win. Tulane gets the 7 with a win and an ECU loss. Tulane gets the 8 with a win and an ECU win. Tulane gets the 9 with a loss.
10/11: Houston/USF tied. Houston has tiebreaker but USF can get the 10 with a win and a UH loss.
If we get the 10, we would play 7-ECU (ECU would have clinched the 7-seed in this scenario). The winner of that game then faces the 2-seed (loser of Tulsa/SMU).
If USF is the 11, we would play the 6 who would be either the host UConn or Memphis. Right now, UConn is 6 and loses the tiebreaker to Memphis. UConn would need to win AND have Memphis lose in the finale to drop Memphis to the 6.
For those looking ahead, here is what I have for the AAC tournament seedings. After the three 7:00 games, locked into their spots are:
Houston will be #11 and SMU #10 unless UH wins and SMU loses in the remaining games tonight. Right now ECU is ahead of Tulane for the 5-seed, and this will hold if Temple beats lowly Houston. If Temple loses, the three-way tie would drop ECU to the 6-seed, and give Tulane the #5.
Thanks for the updates. Unable to watch as I am in Cincinnati for the men's game. Fans here couldn't handle my horns and security made me take them off. Thanks to the ladies for really sticking it to the Bearcats.