USF/UCF offensive and defensive stats are pretty similar from a yardage perspective, but the obvious difference is that they score TD's instead of kicking FG's. USF has attempted 23 FG's, while UCF has only attempted 12. Yes, part of it is that we have a good kicker, but we have kicked 9 from 20-29 yards, while they have only kicked 3 from the same distance. As many have stated all year, our red zone offense (although, I would say from the 35 yard line in) has been atrocious, and Charlie doesn't mind playing for FG's. Frost wants to score on every play.
Also, our top receivers have very similar stats (48 catches 737 yards vs. 44 catches 850 yards), but MV-S has 5 TD's vs. Smith's 11 TD's.
Some of the scoring differences are attributed to the fact that they have more team speed at RB and WR (like we had with 5 and 87 last year), which leads to long TD's, but if the Bulls can take advantage of their scoring opportunities in UCF territory, I like our chances on Friday.
This will take a little creativity from Gilbert including some screens and wheel routes to 2, the seam route to 89 (9 will make the throw), no drops from 11 and 12, and some opportunities for 8 to run some Knights over on bubble screens. 9 will take care of the rest.
Oh, and like Navy and SMU, the defense needs to hold them to 31 or less.